Just as some people argue that it is an
oversimplification to say that the recent sanctions
imposed on Iran will have an immediate impact on the
regime, it is also wrong to say that the sanctions
will be ineffective and do not pose a threat to
Tehran.
The sanctions set a platform for harsher sanctions
whether they are imposed by Washington or Europe and
they might also set a platform for a war resolution.
We should remember here the resolutions and sanctions
that were imposed on Saddam Hussein’s Iraq, and he
always viewed them carelessly until the 9/11 terrorist
attacks took place in the US and a US administration
longing to overthrow the former Iraqi regime came
along and the rest is history. In Iran’s case, the aim
is not to overthrow the current regime, as the regime
is rejected internally on top of the international
community’s opinion of it; rather Iran might find
itself in an international military confrontation that
will set it back decades and will affect the Faqih
regime itself.
The danger of the fourth set of sanctions on Iran
is that it caused the Mullah regime to lose its
internal and external value. On the international
level, the sanctions consolidate the rejection of Iran
and everybody will abandon it soon, as at the end of
the day [national] interests dominate and Iran will
have nothing left but bandits i.e. rejected armed
groups and suitcase traders. Moreover, because of the
sanctions, Iran’s reputation is at risk as its ships,
for example, will be subjected to inspection whether
in the high seas or the Red Sea or even in the
Mediterranean and this is extremely humiliating for
the regime. Above all, the Iranian economic situation
will suffer even more than it was suffering before,
not to mention the regressive energy sector and the
danger that will affect Iran’s ability to arm itself.
Internally, the current regime does not enjoy
popularity; in fact it is accused of hijacking the
presidential elections and the evidence of its lack of
popularity is that the head of Iran’s Revolutionary
Guard Corps said that the protests in the eight months
following the elections were more dangerous to the
Islamic Republic than the eight years of war with Iraq
under Saddam Hussein. This means that the regime in
Iran itself is losing its value and prestige. It is
true that the regime will tighten its control
internally but we must remember that the Shah’s regime
did not collapse overnight but rather through
continuous activity in a similar way to what is
happening inside Iran today. The difference between
Iran and other rejected states is that there is a real
internal popular movement [against the regime] and it
has a strong history and because of it there is real
pressure on the Mullah regime just like that which
caused the Shah to fall when he was at the peak of
arrogance.
Therefore, no matter what the Iranian president
says about the fate of the sanctions and that they
should be thrown in the rubbish bin, the truth of the
matter is that the regime will suffer a great deal
because of the sanctions. It is true that some people
are saying that Washington pursued India and Pakistan
to prevent them from possessing nuclear weapons and
still failed but we should also remember how the
Soviet Union collapsed from within without any foreign
bullets [being fired]. We must also remember that
there is an important party to the equation of the
battle with Iran that we must observe with caution and
that party is Israel. Therefore, the sanctions are a
threat to Iran in spite of what has been said and is
being said.