28 September 2010 By Osman Mirghani A few days ago, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary
Clinton warned that Sudan “is a ticking time bomb of
enormous consequence”, indicating that the secession
of the South is inevitable, and the situation must be
dealt with on this premise. At the same time, she
advised the South to offer compromises and deals to
the North, in particular regarding the issue of oil,
“unless they want more years of war”. Last Friday, Salva Kiir Mayardit, First Deputy
President of Sudan and President of the Government of
Southern Sudan, said in a meeting to the Black Caucus
in the American Congress, that the future of Sudan was
“hanging in the balance”. He indicated that unity was
no longer an attractive option, and that all evidence
indicates that the southerners will choose
‘independence’, in the upcoming referendum on the 9th
January 2011. Salva Kiir also took the opportunity to
respond to the advice of Hillary Clinton, criticizing
her call [to offer concessions to the North] as one
“to buy our freedom”. He considered it unjust to
demand that the South hand over the majority of their
oil reserves to the North. On the same day, the Sudanese Embassy in Washington
distributed the text of a letter written by the Second
Vice-President Ali Osman Mohamed Taha, Chief
Supervisor of the Southern Issue, addressed to the
U.S. Administration, describing them as one of the
driving forces who stood behind the Sudanese peace
agreement in 2005, on the basis that a future
referendum would be conducted. In his letter, Taha
calls for the Obama Administration to move in the
coming period to instigate “a new beginning in
U.S.-Sudanese relations”, by lifting sanctions and
ceasing their pressures. He also suggested that the
U.S. Administration suspend the prosecution of
President Omar al-Bashir, especially as he is the
individual “who controls the decision for war or
peace”. Yet these opinions come at a time when the U.S.
Administration is stepping up its action, regarding
the issue of a referendum in Southern Sudan, after
realizing that time is running out. The proposed
referendum date is only 109 days away, meanwhile
problems are accumulating and indicators suggest that
failure to reach a satisfactory solution, and
clarification on issues such as borders, oil, water,
and bilateral relations, may lead to either the
abandonment of the referendum, or a “tempestuous
divorce” amidst outstanding problems. The result in
both cases would be a bloody war. The reality is that American action has come after
a period of hesitation, fluctuation and differences
within the Obama Administration, regarding the
Sudanese issue. This indecisive state was not resolved
until after Vice President Joe Biden’s visit to Africa
in June, where the topic of Sudan was at the top of
his agenda. During a stopover in Kenya, Biden met with
Salva Kiir, and discussed ‘the future of the South’
with him. He stressed the U.S. Administration’s
support for the referendum to be held on time, and
pledged to offer support to the South, whilst also
advising southern leaders to seek to resolve their
outstanding issues with the North, before the
referendum date. That visit, and subsequent meetings within the
Obama Administration, resolved the differences and
hesitancy. The Administration adopted a strategy to
put pressure on Khartoum, to organize the referendum
on time, and to put pressure on Juba to ensure that
the referendum would be conducted in a “free and fair
atmosphere”. More importantly, America decided to
pursue a policy of ‘incentives or sanctions’ with the
Sudanese government, to ensure their cooperation
regarding the referendum, which seems to be overtaking
the issue of Darfur on the list of Washington’s
priorities. From this perspective, the Administration
has developed its plan to lift U.S. sanctions on Sudan
gradually, and in calculated steps, in accordance with
certain key dates in relation to the referendum. This
will encourage Khartoum to meet the 9th January
deadline, and moreover will help to ensure that the
Khartoum government recognizes the outcome, especially
if the result is southern separation. Under this strategy, Obama also decided to attend a
specific meeting with Sudan, on the sidelines of the
United Nations General Assembly meeting last Friday.
In doing so, he aimed to convey the message that the
U.S. Administration, at its highest levels, is giving
the subject of Sudan, and the southern referendum, its
utmost attention. Obama also wanted to protect himself
from the widespread criticism leveled against him in
Washington, which has argued that he has abandoned his
election promise to give the Sudanese issue his
attention, after criticizing the Bush Administration
for not applying enough pressure or acting upon the
issue. There is another dimension to this resurgent
American interest in the Sudanese situation. It is
also motivated by a great concern for the prospect of
a renewed war in Sudan, this time even bloodier,
especially after the South has stockpiled weapons over
the past few years. There is also the fear that the
war could expand and draw in neighboring countries,
leading to turmoil in the region, especially with the
presence of a rebel movement in Uganda, the tensions
between Ethiopia and Eritrea, and the collapsed state
of Somalia. Furthermore, what happens in Sudan after
the referendum will have far reaching implications,
both regionally and internationally. Secession will
ignite a volatile issue in the region, where there are
numerous minorities, amid much ethnic, religious and
tribal overlapping, and ‘loose’ border
interpretations. The ‘independent’ South possesses in
its genes all the hallmarks of potential future
problems, raising fears of a ‘Sudanese Rwanda’.
Therefore, the separation of the North and South does
not mean that the issue has come to an end. Instead, a
lot needs to be done to ensure stability, and prevent
clashes which could easily result from oil, water, or
tribal and border tensions. The Sudanese ‘divorce’ is inevitable, given current
indicators. The witness to proceedings will be
American, as is the desire of both parties. Meanwhile,
the Arabs will be mere spectators, but that is another
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