24 March 2012 By Tariq Alhomayed I write this article before UN
envoy to Syria, Kofi Annan, presents his report to the
UN Security Council, however all signs indicate that
Bashar al-Assad is between the carrot and the stick!
Even without knowing what Annan has requested from al-Assad,
there is practical consensus that Annan's mission is
al-Assad's last chance. Of course, nobody has publicly pledged to go to
war, however the indicators [of war] are clear to see;
the Turks have praised the statement made by Prince
Saud al-Faisal that arming the Syrian opposition is an
"excellent" idea, indeed Ankara has announced that it
will consider establishing a buffer zone inside Syrian
territory. This is something that cannot be achieved
via consent between Turkey and the al-Assad regime;
rather this would require major military action, and
such action, of course, is justified. For with the
influx of Syrian refugees into Turkey, not to mention
the al-Assad regime laying land-mines along the
border, Ankara has every right to take military action
to protect its borders which have been repeatedly
violated by al-Assad regime forces, as well as in
order to secure territory for the Syrian refugees. The story is not just Turkey, for now we see the
Gulf States collectively and permanently closing their
embassies in Syria, and withdrawing their staff,
whilst the western states are doing the same, and
there are even calls for a collective European
decision along the same lines. This is an indication
that the situation is escalating, not calming down.
If, as some claim, part of Annan's mission is to calm
the situation and carry out political dialogue leading
to al-Assad exiting power along the lines of the
Yemeni model, then we cannot also help but notice that
– at the same time – the international movement is
escalatory, and is more like a declaration of war;
therefore al-Assad is between the carrot and the
stick. This, of course, is a message to al-Assad and
those around him, particularly when the US president [Barack
Obama] and the British prime minister [David Cameron]
tell al-Assad that the noose is tightening around him,
and this is not calming talk whatsoever! This week has seen important movement in the
region, from the visit of the US Director of
Intelligence to Turkey, to the visit paid by the Chief
of Staff of the French Army to Ankara, whilst
information reveals that the Turkish Intelligence
chief will visit Saudi Arabia in the near future, and
all of this is not without meaning. What is more
important than this is the Russian position, which
some believe is turning against al-Assad, in fact some
are saying that Moscow's position on Syria has already
changed, and it is only a question of bringing this
out. I have received information from well-informed
sources that on Thursday night a Russian official told
an official within the tyrant of Damascus's regime –
during a telephone call – that al-Assad must respond
positively to Annan's requests, otherwise Moscow would
no longer be able to present itself as the protector
of a killer, more than it already has. If you believe
this story, and I have no doubt in my source – and we
must also recall [Russian Foreign Minister] Lavrov's
criticism of al-Assad at the Russian State Duma two
days ago – then this represents a breakthrough in the
Syrian crisis. This also perhaps explains why Hassan
Nasrallah came out and called for a ceasefire in
Syria, from all sides; and so it is as if Nasrallah
today is al-Assad circa 2006! Therefore all signs indicate that al-Assad is now
between the carrot and the stick; there is movement
from different sides, which may be slow, but this
movement is not in the interests of al-Assad, and that
is certainly what is required. Tariq Alhomayed is the Editor-in-Chief of Asharq
Al-Awsat, the youngest person to be appointed that
position. He holds a BA degree in Media studies from
King Abdul Aziz University in Jeddah, and has also
completed his Introductory courses towards a Master's
degree from George Washington University in Washington
D.C. He is based in London.
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