Alleged Syria-North Korea nuclear link: Why now? Iraq all over again
By Amina Anderson
April 29, 2008
More than half a year after an Israeli attack destroyed an alleged nuclear reactor under construction in Syria, the U.S.’s release of what it claims are still images of the facility before the strike poses serious questions and raises fears of a new conflict in the Middle East.
According to U.S. intelligence officials, who briefed Congressmen last Thursday, Syria had been building a secret nuclear reactor for military ends. They claim that the plan was being built with the help of North Korea, until its destruction by an Israeli air strike on 6 September, 2007.
According to an article on the BBC, the U.S. allegations could have serious ramifications because they could further isolate Syria and undermine international talks aimed at getting North Korea to scrap its nuclear program.
The accusations also led to further distrust between the U.S. and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which hasn’t been informed of the matter earlier.
Even on Capitol Hill Democrat lawmakers are angry that the Bush administration kept the information for some considerable time.
Iraq all over again?
U.S. briefings about alleged weapons of mass destruction programmes definitely bring bad memories after the U.S. experience in Iraq. The whole world remembers the time in February 2003 when then U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell briefed the United Nations about Iraq’s alleged WMD to make a case for war.
The briefing turned out to be misleading. No such weapons were ever found in Iraq.
The ten-minute video released by the Bush administration in an effort to prove Syria-North Korea nuclear connection could also be deemed misleading.
It uses still images which, it is claimed, were taken inside the facility during its construction.
But there is no independent way to verify this claim.
There are also no signs of the elements needed for a bomb-making programme - a plant to separate out the plutonium and a factory to actually assemble a weapon.
If, as the Americans claim, the reactor was close to completion, where would its uranium fuel have come from?
Last September's Israeli air strike "hit a military site under construction, not a nuclear site as Israel and America claimed," Syrian President Bashar al-Assad told the Qatari daily Al-Watan on Sunday.
"Does it make sense that we would build a nuclear facility in the desert and not protect it with anti-aircraft defences? A nuclear site exposed to (spy) satellites, in the heart of Syria and in an open space?,” he asked.
Why now?
Many voices are asking why the United States chose to disclose its allegations of a clandestine Syrian nuclear project now? And was this an effort to further isolate Syria or was it aimed at bringing more pressure on North Korea?
An alleged nuclear connection between Pyongyang and Damascus certainly harms both governments.
Although several analysts warn of renewed conflict between Israel and Syria, there have also been several reports about a possible agreement over the Golan Heights, a rocky plateau in south-western Syria seized by Israel in the 1967 Six-Day War.
Allegations of a secret Syrian nuclear program now would harm peace efforts and reinforce Damascus’ isolation, analysts say.
And let’s not forget that without U.S. brokerage, any talk of a Syria-Israel deal is illusory.
Some analysts say that the U.S. decision to disclose its information could be the result of internal conflict between competing currents within the Bush Administration.
In this case, the Syria-North Korea nuclear allegations are a victory of the more hawkish voices, who fear that President Bush might be going soft as he approaches the end of his presidential term.
Contradicting many politicians who say that peace in the Middle East won’t be achieved without Syria’s involvement, those hawkish voices in the U.S. believe that Washington shouldn’t not accept any dealings with Damascus.
They also believe that the U.S. should not make the concessions required to North Korea to keep alive the deal to scrap its nuclear programme.
However, the chief U.S. negotiator, Christopher Hill, has noted that in the U.S. view, nuclear co-operation between North Korea and Syria is no longer continuing. So it’s hard to predict whether the nuclear talks would be affected by the new revelations.
IAEA probe
The way in which the U.S. hid its allegations for so long also angered the International Atomic Energy Agency, which launched an investigation into matter on Friday. Syria promised its full cooperation.
IAEA head, Mohammed El-Baradei, was briefed on the matter by a top U.S. official Thursday, the same day American officials also briefed a congressional committee on intelligence issues.
On Friday, El-Baradei issued a statement in which he deplored that information about Syria allegedly building a nuclear reactor was not provided to the UN’s nuclear watchdog in a timely manner, AFP reported.
He also accused Israel of using unilateral force in bombing the alleged reactor, and by doing so undermining verification that is central to nuclear non-proliferation issues. The IAEA depends on information from member states to curb nuclear proliferation.
With the site of the alleged reactor razed, a new building built over it, it is hard to see how far the IAEA's investigations can go.
The nuclear allegations definitely add more pressure on both Syria and North Korea. It’s hard to say why Washington chose to disclose the information now. Was the move aimed at Damascus or Pyongyang? Will Syria-Israel tensions grow? Will North Korea cut its nuclear negotiations with the U.S.? It will be interesting to see how things unfold in the coming weeks.