30 Jan 2012 By Keith Johnson The New Year kicked off with the highest January
gas prices in history, due in large part to the
tensions between the U.S. and Iran. According to the
American Automobile Association (AAA), the average
price for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline in the
United States is roughly $3.38, nearly 30 cents higher
than a year ago. It's bound to get worse. This week,
Bloomberg reported that oil was trading "near
$100 in New York on concerns that Iran may respond to
a European embargo on its crude exports by following
through on threats to disrupt Persian Gulf shipping." The oil market is largely driven by headlines, and
soars every time the West shakes their fist at one of
Israel's enemies. That not only drives up the price
you pay at the pump for a gallon of gasoline, but also
affects the cost of every product and service that
travels by way of land, air or sea. Sure, there are other factors that play into the
price of oil—demand, speculation, taxes, environmental
regulations, refinery capabilities, etc., etc. But for
at least the last twenty years, war (and rumors of
war) have been the major driving force. On February 19, 2008, former (and I might add
deceased) Representative John Murtha (D-PA) stated,
"Oil was $27 per barrel before the war in Iraq
started. Today it's $86 a barrel. Gas at the pump was
$1.76 per gallon before the war in Iraq. Today it's
$3.02." Of course the Iraq war—just like the one we're now
starting with Iran—would not have been waged had it
not been for Israel, who's had their crosshairs
trained on both Muslim nations for many years. In
1996, Israeli dual citizens Douglas Feith and Richard
Perle were both advisors to Israel's Likud Party
leader Benjamin Netanyahu. During that time, the duo
co-authored a policy paper, entitled A Clean Break: A
New Strategy for Securing the Realm. In it, they said
that Saddam would have to be destroyed, and that
Syria, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, and Iran would all have
to be overthrown or destabilized in order for Israel
to be truly safe. Feith would later become the U.S.
Under Secretary of Defense of Policy for the Bush
administration. It was through Feith's Office of
Special Plans (OSP) that the Israelis channelled
faulty intelligence about Saddam's so-called "Weapons
of Mass Destruction." These lies led the U.S. Congress
to enact the Iraq War Resolution of 2002, which gave
George W. Bush carte blanche to wage a bloody conflict
that has since claimed the lives of over one million
Iraqis and nearly 5,000 American troops. Now, new lies about Iran's so-called "nuclear
weapons program" are fueling that war, and Syria is
also under attack based on lies that Assad is killing
his own people. As for Lebanon and Saudi Arabia? It's
only a matter of time, baby! For decades, Israel has largely been responsible
for the rise in petroleum prices. Writing for The
Washington Report on Middle East Affairs in 2003,
Dr. Thomas R. Stauffer concluded that conflicts in the
Middle East have cost the American taxpayer
approximately $3 trillion. According to Stauffer, "The
largest single element in the costs has been the
series of six oil-supply crises since the end of World
War II." He goes on to say that, "the several earlier
Mideast oil crises, in 1956 and 1967, actually had
relatively little effect on the United States," and it
wouldn't be until the Arab-Israeli War of 1973 that
things would start spiraling out of control. That's
when the U.S. forked out almost $1 trillion dollars to
supply Israel with arms and provide subsidies to
countries willing to sign peace treaties with them,
such as Egypt and Jordan. Stauffer writes,
"Washington's intervention triggered the Arab oil
embargo which cost the U.S. doubly: first, due to the
oil shortfall, the US lost about $300 billion to $600
billion in GDP; and, second, the U.S. was saddled with
another $450 billion in higher oil import costs." A third factor added to the oil-related cost of the
1973 war was the U.S. created Strategic Petroleum
Reserve (SPR), which was designed to insulate Israel
and the U.S. against the wielding of a future Arab
"oil weapon." Stauffer writes, "It was destined to
contain one billion barrels of oil, which could be
released in the event of a supply crisis. To date the
SPR, which still exists and is slowly being expanded,
has cost $134 billion—since much of the oil was bought
at high prices, and because the salvage value is
relatively low. Thus, the 1973 oil crisis, all in all,
cost the U.S. economy no less than $900 billion, and
probably as much as $1,200 billion." The next regional oil crisis was the Iranian
revolution and the subsequent Iran-Iraq war. "The
joint effect of the two crises cost the U.S. consumer
$335 billion in terms of higher prices for imported
oil," writes Stauffer. "It also caused a rise in
prices of domestic energy—oil, gas, and coal. These
"knock-on" effects are not included, however, so that
the figure of $335 billion is indeed a lower bound for
the actual costs of those two, back-to-back crises.
The total consumer cost is likely to have been more
than double that figure." Stauffer concludes by referencing the 1990/91 Gulf
war, which he said proved to be a bargain in
comparison to other regional conflicts, costing
"American consumers approximately $80 billion in
higher oil prices, including both imported and
domestic oil, again excluding the resulting "knock-on"
effects." I guess that brings us up to date. So what does the
future have in store for oil prices in the event that
the U.S. and Israel continue to push Iran to the brink
to ruin? Writing for 24/7 Wall Street,
Douglas A. McIntyre reports, "The International
Monetary Fund says the nations that would set
sanctions against Iran's oil exports will pay for
their convictions with crude prices that could rise as
much as 30%. Brent crude would be pushed to more than
$140 a barrel. The shock of the increase could knock
the global economic recovery, such as it is, off of
its axis." And in November 2011, the Pacific Investment
Management Company (PIMCO)—the world's largest bond
investor—released a report that offers four possible
scenarios that might likely occur if Iran's energy
sector is compromised: Scenario 1: Exports minimally
affected. Concerns would drive initial price response.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) would likely
make statements about willingness to meet any
shortfall in supplies. Oil could spike initially to
$130 to $140 per barrel and then settle in a higher
range, around $120 to $125, in relatively short order
as a premium (mostly a risk premium) becomes embedding
into the market, at least for a while. The timing of
the spike would depend on how much the market is taken
by surprise and whether or not the strike is priced in
ahead of time. No matter how you look at it, the U.S. consumer is
destined for hard times if this dangerous game is
allowed to continue. As for Israel—they'll do just fine no matter what.
While Americans painfully adjust to price increases
brought on by $5 to $10 per gallon gasoline, the
Israelis will find a negligible decrease in their
standard of living. Thanks to a 1975 Memorandum of
Understanding (MOU), the United States government is
obligated to satisfy all of Israel's oil needs in the
event of crisis, even if it causes domestic shortages
to the American people. This little known legislation
is renewed every five years, and commits $3 billion
taxpayer dollars to maintain a strategic U.S. reserve
for Israel. The U.S. government also guarantees
delivery of oil in U.S. tankers if commercial shippers
become unable or unwilling to carry oil from the USA
to Israel. Yeah, I know…Doesn't that just SUCK!!!!! Comments 💬 التعليقات |