02 June 2012 By
Abdul Rahman Al-Rashed The Syrian war has
entered a new stage that may foreshadow the collapse
of the regime due to its transgressions, including the
crimes that shocked the world in Houla, which saw the
slaughtering of entire families, including children.
Perhaps this is the
reason why the American government has chosen to
disclose that it began secret contacts with Moscow
more than three weeks ago with the aim of reaching a
deal to remove Bashar al-Assad from power. The New
York Times revealed that US President Barack Obama had
authorized one of his national security advisers to
consult with Russian President Vladimir Putin on ways
to secure al-Assad's departure, whilst the two
presidents are set to discuss this issue in person
when they meet next week. This represents a
positive step, even though this leaked initiative is
based on the so-called "Yemeni solution", which is the
initiative that was put forward by the Gulf
Cooperation Council [GCC] in Yemen and resulted in the
successful removal of the Yemeni president following
the outbreak of the revolution there last year,
allowing the Yemeni people to avoid a costly civil
war. This was a peaceful solution based on apply
intense pressure on then-Yemeni President Ali Abdullah
Saleh to step down in return for guarantees of his
safety – as well as the safety of his family – whilst
he was also allowed to return to Yemen as an ordinary
citizen. The Americans believe
that this would be an elegant solution, securing al-Assad's
departure and allowing the opposition to come to
power, in addition to protecting state institutes and
allowing the Syrian people to avoid a civil war. This
solution would also prevent regional conflict from
breaking out on the ground, allowing the region as a
whole to avoid the rise of terrorist groups born in
the midst of chaos and a dangerous political and
security vacuum. However Syria is not
Yemen, and al-Assad is not Saleh, whilst the huge
amount of blood that has been shed in Syria, giving
rise to hatred between the warring parties, cannot in
any way be compared to what we saw in Yemen. Despite
all this, if this solution can truly be implemented
quickly, then this would represent a good choice for
the Syrian people and the entire world. However I must
stress that I have deep reservations regarding whether
it will be possible to implement the Yemeni solution
in Syria. Al-Assad and his gang
will not easily accept this, whilst the groups
affiliated to him will continue killing, and the UN
Security Council will be forced to pressure him with a
series of resolutions, including a travel ban and
closing the Syrian borders, in order to choke off the
al-Assad regime logistically. When this fails, the
Security Council will have no other choice but to
resort to military intervention in order to protect
the Syrian civilians, namely the Libyan solution. Only
after all of this has occurred will al-Assad step
down! This means that the Syrian people must wait till
next year to reach this state, whereas if this had
begun one year ago, then perhaps the implementation of
the peaceful Yemeni solution could have easily ended
the Syrian crisis today. In addition to this,
we must also recognize that the Syrian opposition's
choices are limited, namely fighting against the al-Assad
regime without license from the UN, and it may take
them one year to topple the regime. Even if the
opposition exhibits patience and its leadership – at
home and abroad – agrees to an international solution,
they will never – nor will the Syrian people – accept
any al-Assad security or military officers remaining
in power, in fact they will call for these figures to
be pursued and brought to trial, even if they also
acknowledge that preserving state security and
military apparatus is in the interests of Syria as a
whole, as well as the revolution. Another obstacle,
including the issue of timing and the details of any
solution, is that there is a possibility of Russia and
other al-Assad allies interfering to engage political
groups with ties to him. This represents one of the
most difficult conditions of any proposed deal, and
may undermine any reasonable solution. If the Americans are
serious about adopting the Yemeni solution and
pointing everybody in this direction, then they must
do more than negotiate and consult because al-Assad
will not accept any deal until after the Yemeni
solution is no longer applicable and it is impossible
to implement. We must accelerate the arming of the
Syrian opposition and support them to besiege the
regime until al-Assad accepts stepping down from power
via a deal that represents the bare minimum that he
has offered others. Unless al-Assad feels that he is
being militarily besieged, he will never step down,
rather he will accept more and more support from
Hezbollah and Iran to create even more chaos, pushing
Syria towards a sectarian war, for this is precisely
what he wants, as he believes this will allow him to
retain control of some parts of Syria, remaining as
president of the regions that are – in terms of
sectarianism – affiliated or allied to him Al Rashed is the general manager of Al -Arabiya
television. He is also the former editor-in-chief of
Asharq Al- Awsat, and the leading Arabic weekly
magazine, Al Majalla. He is also a senior Columnist in
the daily newspapers of Al Madina and Al Bilad. He is
a US post-graduate degree in mass communications. He
has been a guest on many TV current affairs programs.
He is currently based in Dubai. Comments 💬 التعليقات |