15 June 2012 By Tariq Alhomayed There is a degree of confusion at the reluctance of
Ankara to react in any way to the al-Assad regime
bringing down a Turkish military plane over its
territorial waters, and there are many ways to analyze
this matter. There are those who accuse Turkey of
weakness, and there are those who say that Ankara
talks more than it acts, especially as it is often
claimed that Erdogan's patience has its limits. Today, after the Turks revealed - according to what
was reported by the media there - that the orders to
shoot down the Turkish plane had been issued by the
al-Assad regime itself, on the basis of recordings
obtained by the Turkish authorities, the age-old
question is: why has there been no practical Turkish
response? Turkey's military strength far outweighs
that of the tyrant of Damascus; in fact there is no
room for a comparison between them. Besides, Ankara
has many other cards in its hand with which it could
respond. It has the potential to wear down the al-Assad
regime across the 822 kilometer-long border between
the two countries, and there is the option to plunge
all of Syria into darkness by cutting off its
electricity, or by at least making it more erratic,
which would confuse the al-Assad regime. Turkey could
prevent al-Assad's forces from moving along the border
in accordance with prior agreements signed, or it
could assist the Syrian rebels in a greater capacity,
providing them with quality weapons capable of burning
a hundred of al-Assad's tanks in exchange for the
downing of a Turkish plane. All these and more are
options available to Ankara, and therefore the
confusion at the lack of a Turkish response towards
the tyrant of Damascus is warranted. I say it is warranted, and especially so if we
recall Turkey's threat to Hafez al-Assad in 1998,
whereby if he did not hand over Abdullah Öcalan then
the Turkish army would invade Syria. At the time,
Hafez al-Assad bowed to this threat, and now we find
Öcalan in a Turkish prison, so how can Turkey today
tolerate Bashar al-Assad's attacks, including the
downing of a Turkish plane, even if it did violate
Syrian airspace? According to what the Turks have
announced, around 114 violations of Turkish airspace
have taken place this year alone, whether committed by
Greece, Israel or other countries. Turkey did not
shoot down one of these aircraft, and there was no
issue in the first place especially since there are
international laws and regulations governing
violations of airspace between states, so why has
Turkey not responded now? Of course, the Turkish response may have actually
begun, and without a formal declaration, especially
with reports that Turkey has received a number of
dissident Syrian military officers, soldiers and their
families, around 222 in total according to CNN. The
arrival of these dissidents in Turkey was announced
immediately, suggesting that Ankara can do a lot
without explicitly declaring so, or without launching
an all-out war on al-Assad. Without doubt, the behavior of the al-Assad regime
will help Erdogan to make a move against the tyrant
more easily. For example, the Turkish government has
begun informing the Turkish opposition of the content
of the recordings it has acquired, implicating the al-Assad
regime in the downing of the Turkish military plane,
and Ankara has begun to openly say to al-Assad: "Do
not provoke the Turkish army". Are the Turks actually
moving, or will they move, even without a declaration
of war, in order to accelerate the expected collapse
of the tyrant of Damascus? We will see. Tariq Alhomayed is
the Editor-in-Chief of Asharq Al-Awsat, the youngest
person to be appointed that position. He holds a BA
degree in Media studies from King Abdul Aziz
University in Jeddah, and has also completed his
Introductory courses towards a Master's degree from
George Washington University in Washington D.C. He is
based in London. Comments 💬 التعليقات |