I don't know for sure what Palestinian Authority (PA) Chairman Mahmoud Abbas will say in his much-heralded speech at the UN General Assembly later this week.

This is not because Abbas is unpredictable or enigmatic. He is neither.

But while one can't be quite certain about the contents of Abbas's speech, a careful observer of Abbas's behavior since he succeeded Yasser Arafat more than ten years ago, can be sure of what the speech won't contain.

Abbas will not declare the end of the scandalous Oslo peace process, not because the disastrous scheme is beneficial or expedient for the Palestinian people and their enduring just cause, but rather because the chains of the Oslo Process have long crippled the PA, making Abbas utterly unable, even if willing, to dislodge himself and his powerless, un-sovereign authority from the Oslo trap.

In fact, a unilateral termination of the Oslo Process, de jure or de facto, by the PLO would be a sort of suicide for the Ramallah leadership. In the final analysis, the PLO-PA entity has so integrated itself into the system that bolting out of it is unthinkable.

Similarly, Abbas won't announce the end of the treacherous pact with Israel, known as "security coordination." The term is in fact inaccurate because the security coordination is unilateral, first and foremost, as Israel doesn't carry out the same responsibilities and tasks carried out to the letter the PA carries.

Indeed, the security coordination between the Israeli occupation army and the PA security agencies very much resembles the working relations between a master and his slave.

Besides, we all know that serving Israeli security whims by the estimated 70,000 PA security personnel , which also includes repressing, tormenting and savaging Palestinian citizens on Israel's behalf, constitutes the ultimate raison d'être for the PA as far as Israel is concerned.

This is why Abbas won't even allude to this subject, knowing too well it would mean a definitive suicide for the PA.

Furthermore, Abbas is unlikely to announce the dismantlement of the PA as such a step would cost Abbas too much in terms of political support, especially the tens of thousands of operatives and civil servants and their families who will abruptly lose their income which might cause a real implosion within the Palestinian society, one with unpredictable direct and indirect ramifications.

As part of these ramifications, the Palestinian banking system would also collapse as a result of the inability of PA employees and civil servants to pay off their loans and debt, worth several billions of dollars.

A state under occupation

The most audacious scenario expected from Abbas at the UN will be a declaration that Palestine is a state under foreign occupation.

Abbas probably hopes that such a feat would be backed by a sufficient number of member-states of the UN, which would create a certain international momentum, pressuring Israel to come to terms with Palestinian rights.

But Abbas's hopes are actually a futile exercise in wishful thinking, very much like the Declaration of Independence of 1988 and other similar PR schemes that did virtually nothing to advance the Palestinian cause.

Abbas and his PA apparatuses are focusing their efforts on making symbolic accomplishments, such as joining some UN agencies, precisely because they have been utterly unable to make real, concrete achievements on the ground.

Hence, declaring Palestine a state under foreign occupation would be another symbolic achievement even if we gave Abbas the benefit of the doubt.

But in this case, another symbolic but useless achievement would deepen the Palestinian people's frustration and embolden Israel to continue its Nazi-like efforts toward the liquidation of the Palestinian people.

A few days ago, a right-wing Israeli commentator wondered why Israel doesn't imitate President Bashar el-Assad in ethnically cleansing millions of Sunni Muslims of his people by forcing them to seek a new life in Europe.

"The world is watching rather passively as Bashar Assad is expelling millions of Syrians across the globe. Why can't Israel do the same by expelling a few million Palestinians?"

Finally, it is really mind-boggling why Abbas is continuing with his manifestly futile approach?

Does he count on Russia which is giving Assad the means to exterminate the Syrian people?

Does he count on Britain which created Israel in Palestine in the first place?

Does he count on the US, Israel's guardian-ally, which the late Palestinian historian Walid Khalidi called "the ultimate tormentor of the Palestinian people."

Or perhaps he might be counting on the blood-drenched ruling Junta in Cairo, which has murdered more Egyptians in cold blood than Israel did in four wars with Egypt.

In conclusion, I have an advice for Mr. Abbas:
You have already passed the age of eighty. At such age, a man needs to do a lot of reflection and soul-searching.

Hence, instead of flying all the way to New York, I suggest you go to the TV building in Ramallah to address the Palestinian people and tell them that the time has arrived for your retirement.

Khalid Amayreh is a Palestinian journalist and political commentator living in Occupied Palestine. 

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