Iran And The Nuclear Deal's Future: Iran Secret, Unannounced And Illegal Uranium Enrichment
04 September 2017Heshmat Alavi
Forbes
It has been over a week since a new round of tension has initiated over the
Iran nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
This string of developments were kick-started with a meeting between Nikki
Haley, United States Ambassador to the United Nations, and Yukio Amano,
Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency.
The fact that Washington suddenly sought a meeting with the chief of the UN
nuclear watchdog and launched an emphasis on inspections of Iran’s military
sites has raised eyebrows.
In retaliation, Iran vowed no access to its military sites, prompting Haley’s
reaction in saying such an approach by Tehran will severely jeopardize its
future compliance with the JCPOA. And despite the IAEA issuing a quarterly
report confirming Iran’s compliance with the deal terms, Amano on Thursday
“rejected Tehran’s claim that its military sites were off-limits to
inspection…,” according to the Associated Press.
The Trump administration has been in office for over 7 months now and this
issue coming under limelight is quite significant, to say the least.
The US President is obligated to provide a report to Congress every 90 days on
Iran’s compliance or non-compliance with the JCPOA. It is known by now that
President Trump agreed, grudgingly, to find Iran in compliance back July. In
an interview with The Wall Street Journal () he went as far as to say he had
actually sought to find Iran in non-compliance in the first such report under
his watch, let alone in July.
Mid October is the next set timing for Trump’s future report to Congress. If
he finds Iran in compliance, we will witness a continuation of the status quo,
despite Trump’s belief that Tehran has violated the JCPOA spirit and that this
is the worst deal possible.
As a result, documents, evidence and a strong argument is obviously needed to
prove Iran has violated the pact. Only under such a scenario will the
Europeans and other parties be convinced to board ship.
This can be analyzed as the very purpose of Haley’s meeting with Amano and
other IAEA officials. Washington needs assurance that the IAEA, as a technical
oversight entity, is actually surveilling Iran’s nuclear program and that all
JCPOA articles are truly implemented. And more importantly, is Iran
cooperating and complying or not?
From the JCPOA signing to this day the IAEA has issued seven verification
reports confirming Iran’s compliance. In two reports the IAEA confirmed Iran
exceeding its heavy water limits, resulting in Tehran taking immediate action
to send the excessive amount to Oman. Various analysts viewed this as a sign
of Iran’s desperate need to the JCPOA, despite recent threats of relaunching
nuclear efforts.
It would be difficult for the Trump administration to issue a report finding
Iran in non-compliance when the IAEA says otherwise. This will provoke
criticism across the board, such as claims of Trump’s measures being
politically motivated. Others have made similarities to the Iraq scenario
where claims that led to war were never proven. And the rest is history.
Does this mean the Trump administration has its hands tied and is forced to
continuously find Iran in compliance with the pact?
Certainly not.
There is no doubt that Trump’s predecessor provided Iran with significant
concessions. The list is quite lengthy and shameful in fact.
The Obama White House deliberately neglected the possible military dimension
of Iran’s highly controversial nuclear program. Negotiations were launched and
sanctions were lifted without any such concerns being resolved.
Iran was also provided another loophole in regards to inspections, permitted
time to eliminate evidence of any wrongdoing. The IAEA, going against norms,
has been obligated to inform Tehran beforehand of which site its inspectors
intend to visit and for what particular reason. This is tantamount to
informing a burglar of when and where the police will be patrolling. This
certainly dissolves the inspections regime of any legitimacy.
More interesting is the fact that these articles are not an actual branch of
the JCPOA, but added to by the Obama administration as sideline agreements
with Tehran. The JCPOA itself has emphasized on the implementation of the
Additional Protocol, meaning IAEA inspectors enjoying 24/7 access to military
sites with specific mechanisms to prevent any gaps for Iran to take advantage
of. There is no differentiation between military and non-military sites in the
Additional Protocol.
As a result, one can come to the conclusion that the Trump administration has
placed its crosshairs on a very necessary matter. And this is exactly why
senior Iranian officials have launched a chorus of brouhaha in their
reactions.
Interesting is how officials of the IAEA and Europe have remained silent in
regards to recent US actions and Haley’s meeting with Amano regarding the
inspection of military sites. This is a candid approval by their part,
especially since Haley described her three-hour meeting with the IAEA chief as
constructive.
Why the subject of inspecting Iran’s military sites has been raised at this
timing is truly of significant importance. Of course, the Trump
administration’s reservations in this regard is anyone’s guess.
However, there is undeniable evidence proving Iran is busy with major nuclear
activities in its military sites, resulting in a major JCPOA violation.
As explained in a recent Washington Examiner piece by Alireza Jafarzadeh, “In
June, the National Council of Resistance of Iran revealed details of the
escalation of the Iranian missile program, proving the nuclear threat to be
real. The opposition coalition identified more than 40 sites for missile
development, manufacturing, and testing, all of which were under the control
of the IRGC. What's more, at least one of those sites was known to be
collaborating with the Organization of Defensive Innovation and Research,
known by its Farsi acronym SPND, the institution tasked with weaponization
activities related to the Iranian nuclear weapons program.”
Jafarzadeh is Deputy Director of the NCRI Washington office and credited with
blowing the whistle on Iranian nuclear sites in Natanz and Arak in 2002 that
triggered IAEA inspections in Iran.
Former IAEA inspector David Albright recently said buildings in Iran seen in
satellite imagery match the sketches of facilities used to test strong
explosions. He believes the IAEA should press to gain access to these sites.
Former IAEA deputy Olli Heinonen, who has visited Iran more than 20 times on
different missions, also emphasized how the facilities referred to by Albright
are protected by berms and specifically distanced from one another. This is
similar to the blueprints used for sites testing high explosives, he said,
adding this raises serious questions that Iran must answer and the IAEA should
enjoy access to this site.
White House National Security Council spokesman Michael Anton said the
administration is evaluating the NCRI’s recent package of information very
closely and has placed it against the very best intelligence reports and
analysis available to the United States.
Speaking of grave concerns over Iran’s nuclear activities, the al-Shabab
terrorist group in Somalia, a known al-Qaeda affiliated, has gained control of
African uranium mines and has its eye on supplying the material to Tehran.
This is according to a letter seen recently by Fox News from Somalian
Ambassador to the U.S. Ahmed Awad to his counterpart, U.S. Ambassador to
Somalian Stephen Schwartz. The letter was dated August 11th.
Maybe the best early conclusion was for Haley to pay a visit to Vienna and
seek IAEA’s intelligence access to Iran’s military sites, including the all
controversial Parchin complex located southeast of Tehran.
Upon her return Haley emphasized:
. Iran has secret, unannounced and illegal sites that have yet to be
inspected.
. Iran has publicly announced there will be no access granted to its military
sites while the JCPOA recognizes no difference between military and
non-military facilities.
. Iran’s regime has a clear history of lies and pursuing clandestine nuclear
program. Therefore, Washington encourages the IAEA to practice its full
authority and pursue all of the IAEA’s angles, knowing they enjoy complete US
support in this regard.
. The IAEA can only carry out its duties to a certain extent, as its access to
Iran’s facilities are limited.
Back in December 2015 Iran’s official news agency wired a report on the IAEA
chief voicing how Iran carried out activities in relations with developing a
nuclear explosion device. This intelligence also indicate that prior to 2003,
these measures were very institutionalized and some may continue as we speak.
Now the all-important question is what are the consequences if come October it
is proven Iran has failed to comply with the JCPOA and, in effect, violated
the agreement?
This can signal the end of the entire accord as we know it and bring a
disastrous finale to the years of investments made by Iranian Supreme Leader
Ali Khamenei. Sanctions will return on Iran as six UN Security Council
resolutions will be reinstated.
In case of a violation by Iran, each member of the P5+1 has the authority to
call on the Security Council to vote on the continuation of sanctions reliefs.
No permanent member of the Security Council (China, France, Russia, United
Kingdom and United States) has veto right and all relieved resolutions and
sanctions will be re-imposed. This authority is based on UN Security Council
Resolution 2231.
It is also interesting to know that 10 articles of the new resolution are
based on Chapter 7, Article 41 of the UN Charter, and international law,
providing authority to use force and the military option to implement their
demanded actions.
Under Article 41, the Security Council resolution is binding for all countries
for a period of ten years.
All said and done, with the Trump administration signaling intentions to dent
the JCPOA, and the IAEA reporting Iran has stuck to the deal, the path forward
can be quite a complicated matter.
There is also the possibility of Trump declaring Iran in non-compliance,
without actually pulling out of the JCPOA, to pave the path for addressing
Tehran's nefarious activities in the Middle East.
Here the interest of the Iranian people are paramount. Considering how the
ruling regime in Tehran is plundering the country’s wealth in support of
terrorism, warmongering, and pursuits of an unnecessary nuclear program and
ballistic missiles, restricting and limiting the outreach of the main force
behind all this belligerency is crucial.
Iran’s IRGC controls 40% of the country’s economy and supervises all the above
mentioned troubles. As a result, the recent US sanctions blacklisting the IRGC
as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist group is a step in the right
direction. Washington should not hesitate in implementing these sanctions
immediately and without any loopholes.
Restricting the IRGC is in the Iranian people’s full interests and will
support their effort in establishing freedom and democracy after four decades
of utter crackdown.
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