Back To Fighting In Syria: Assad's Regime, Iran And Russia - Washington And Hezbollah's Presence
17 January 2018By Abdulrahman Al-Rashed
The war in Syria did not stop but the fighting decreased as arrangements are
underway to end it. Promises to achieve a "peaceful" settlement have spread
optimism to the point that several governments sent back their ambassadors to
Damascus and the opposition was declared dead.
Assad's regime, Iran and Russia began to act arrogantly as "victorious"
parties by ignoring the Geneva conference as they think the Sochi negotiations
are the only means to finalize Syria's fate as per their wishes. Iran
increased its military presence and its armament of "Hezbollah". It seems this
is all an attempt to finalize the last days in its favor and to impose its
presence after the war.
Indulging in this behavior made warring parties return to war. The fighting is
raging in Idlib, the South Aleppo Front, Damascus' suburbs and East of the
Euphrates in Deir al-Zour. There are also the mysterious attacks which
destructively targeted Russian troops in the Khmeimim base in Latakia.
David Satterfield, the acting assistant secretary at the American Bureau of
Near Eastern Affairs, told the House Foreign Affairs Committee that the
American government is against Iran's presence in Syria, adding that this was
a strategic matter.
This frank statement is significant and dangerous, and it explains a lot about
recent developments, including the Sochi conference's inability to achieve any
progress, the resumption of the fighting, the UN delegate's retreat on backing
the political solution and the Israeli attack on Iranian military posts near
Damascus.
If Washington really rejects Iran's and Hezbollah's presence in Syria and
believes this principle is a pillar of its policy towards Syria, then it's
capable of overturning the formula and thwarting everything which the Syrian
regime achieved with the help of its allies.
Since Turkey is no longer in harmony with Washington, some may think that the
Americans lost the most important front surrounding Syria and which is no
longer part of the war. This is partially true. However, the Americans have
enough allies to impose their conditions to get the Iranians out of Syria or
to destroy their project of militarily settling in the country.
There are also Israel and the Syrian Democratic Forces which some Free Syrian
Army battalions joined in East Euphrates. There is also the opposition in the
South, near the Jordanian borders. As long as the Iranian Revolutionary Guards
Corps (IRGC) and its foreign militias are stationing in Syria, we will witness
a new round of the Syrian war. It will be like quicksand that's centered
against Iranian forces.
As for the Russians, Satterfield think they will reconsider their presence
when they realize that the war does not serve their interests on the long run
and that the alliance between them and the Iranians will not last for long.
The relapse in negotiations to end the Syrian war is no surprise as they've
actually failed to recognize the most important factor resulting in tensions
and which is the presence of Iranian forces and their militias. For the Syrian
people, their presence there is a recognition of occupation that's being
legitimized at the expense of Damascus' weak regime. For the region's
countries, it marks a dangerous change in the balance of regional powers.
The Iranian-Syrian-Russian tripartite wanted to quickly plan a peace deal in
Sochi while benefiting from regional and American leniency and military
progress. They could have done so but it's difficult to ignore and overlook
the Iranian factor which Washington thinks confronting it is part of its
strategy that did not exist few months ago.
Abdulrahman Al-Rashed is the former general manager of Al-Arabiya
television. He is also the former editor-in-chief of Asharq Al-Awsat, and the
leading Arabic weekly magazine Al-Majalla. He is also a senior columnist in
the daily newspapers Al-Madina and Al-Bilad.
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