16 April 2010
By Adebiyi Jelili Abudugana
Since Yar’Adua took ill, a lot of developments,
positive and negative have been elbowing the Nigerian
political quadrangle. There have been the politically
side-lined who have been exploiting the crevice
created by Yar’Adua’s infirmity to relocate themselves
into the main stage of the political space. This is
because, both at the state and federal structures of
the ruling People’s Disenfranchising Party (PDP),
Yar’Adua’s sickness has brought about marked changes
in the political chemistry and physics of balancing of
interest. As a result, the PDP is now divided along
multiple lines of authority which delicately revolve
around the struggling Yar’Adua’s bloc and the fledging
Jonathan’s group. This explains why there are the pro-Yar’
Adua’s senators and honourables as well those
who belong to the Jonathan’s camp. Within the
presidency, Federal ministries and parastatals, same
dichotomizing politics of alignment prevails. Each of
these multiple lines of authority has been pedaling
their ulterior political interests by subordinating
their agendas to either the Yar’Adua or Jonathan’s
bloc.
Also, due to the political friction arising from the
political struggle of survival between the Yar’Adua-Jonathan’s
camps, some one time mighty and influential game
players have been swayed by the centrifuging wave of
political misfortune from the epic centre of political
significance into the abyss of political fringe.
Michael Aondaonka who rode on the tiger’s back and got
consumed is a good example of those in this category.
A small and powerful part of this clique is what the
chameleon and politically prostituting Dora Akunluyi
referred to as the cabal which wanted to misdirect the
affairs of the country. Those, within this grouping
may not be visible in the Jonathan “commandeered” Aso-rock
leadership, nonetheless, they are on the one hand,
spiritedly involved in engineering the plots that
would see Yar’Adua un-impeached while his recuperation
lasts. On the other, this group’s pro-Yar’Adua stance
would in the face of Yar’Adua’s inability to stage a
final come back wax stronger as this is essential for
them to create instability within the fold of the PDP.
With this, it would be easier for them to make some
political gains, which may sustain their political
relevance beyond the 2011 elections. As it would be
latter argued in this piece, this group may realize
some of its political stakes as the multiple lines of
authority within the PDP have fostered a political
situation whereby staging an impeachment proceeding
against Yar’Adua would be politically impossible, and
too risky a road to ply.
On both sides, there is another group whose sycophancy
and indecision has seen them permanently banished from
the political limelight into obscurity. During the
struggle leading to the emergence of Jonathan as the
acting president, some individuals who were double
dealing by playing both Yar’Adua’s & Jonathan’s cards
belong to this category. While few were smart enough
as not to be detected, a substantial percentage who
were discovered were neither favoured by Jonathan nor
sympathetically disposed to by the Yar’Adua camp which
cannot avoid to play along those whose loyalty is not
one hundred percent.
Within the PDP structure exists the last category
comprising those who had once been forced to eat the
humble’s pie, that are now regaining their depleted
political verve. This is the case with Ibrahim
Gbadamosi Babanginda who is scheming on all fronts to
emerge as the next presidential flag bearer of the
Poverty Distributing Party (PDP).
Furthermore, the continuously resurging political
ripples caused by Yar’Adua’s frailty, have, on the one
hand, rekindled and on the other, worsened the dying
lots of the opposition parties. This is the case with
Action Congress as the much politicized withdrawal of
Atiku and his followers from the party would summarily
knock out the party from the national scene. The Atiku
effect is predicted to be pronounced as Tinubu and
other stake holders who would be left behind in the
party do not have the national political spread that
is required to sustain the party’s national
visibility. Also, the probability that the party’s
visible presence in the western part of the country
will recede is high as it would be now difficult for
Tinubu’s boys to be nominated as the party’s
gubernatorial ticket bearers. In the event of this,
Tinubu’s financial support for the party would reduce;
therefore, the doom which befell the Alliance for
Democracy, AD, is most likely to mark the end of the
AC. The imminence of this is the more reason why
Tinubu would like to be nominated as a running mate to
any presidential aspirant as this is one of the ways
he can maintain his nation presence. Another way is to
be elected a senator. This is also difficult for
Tinubu to achieve as stepping out to displace any of
the senators that are representing Lagos state would
make him to be an endangered political specie. The
only option that can make this possible is for Tinubu
to offer any of these senators his support for the
Lagos gubernatorial elections and ensure that that the
table is turned against Fashola’s emergence as the
party flag bearer. Doing this would also eclipse
Tinubu’s political relevance as Lagosians have seen in
Fashola a governor whose years in office are
remarkable and much more profitable than Tinubu’s
eight turbulent years. But can Tinubu avoid to gamble
with Fashola’s second term bearing in mind the hard
times which the political godfather is going through
in the hands of his political son? The peril ahead of
such political computation has been highlighted by Oba
Akinolu who pronounced that Fashola like Tinubu would
spend eight years in office. The indisputable true son
and paramount king of the land has spoken, so, let the
adopted son of the land take heed of this warning or
else,…?
In Edo state, the AC may as a result of political
expediency, dissolves into the Labour Party. Without
this, the Edo Chapter of the AC would lose its
stronghold in the next election as those who offered
Adams the political support which made him survive the
PDP 2007 electioneering carnage would be relocating
back into their formal party, the PDP. This is another
setback which the AC would be facing. It may also not
be impossible for Adams Oshiomole to join the PDP,
however, the possibility is slim, because Adams may be
wary of the public outcry against such attempt. But,
the politician Adams seems to be different from the
labour leader that is known to the masses, therefore,
he may decide to ignore the public outcry as what
would be prioritized by him would be the retention of
his seat for the second term in office.
ANPP may conversely not suffer a penultimate collapse
as it is likely to be with the AC. However, provided
some of its political actors do not cross carpet into
the PDP, it would at best, maintains its traditional
stronghold. It has been difficult to predict the
political impact of Buhari’s withdrawal from ANPP, but
given his grassroots connection, the party is likely
to lose the two-third control of the seats which it is
controlling at the state levels. At the national
level, one would expect that fifty percent of the
seats under the party’s umbrella would be lost to both
the PDP and the party which Buhari would pitch his
tent.
There is also a high possibility that Orji Uzor Kalu’s
PPA would dissolve into the PDP as the political
atmosphere is now congenial for him to do so. Kalu’s
defection is imminent as this is the only way he can
continue to maintain his stronghold on Abia politics
and remains visible for a long while at the national
political landscape. Kalu’s control of the PPA cannot
survive the next political dispensation as
Theophilus Orji
would put in place all the necessary mechanisms that
would curtain the overbearing influence of the god
father because this is the only way Theophilus can
reposition himself for greater political height at the
national level. Theophilus may as Gbenga Daniel has
been checkmating Obasanjo, creates a new power matrix
within the state PPA’s structure that would threaten
to pull down Orji. This will degenerate into a
political rift which would destabilize the PPA,
thereby leaving the party in a state of limbo. Like
his boss, Theophilus would make a move to cross carpet
to the PDP, but, he would be outplayed by Kalu and
possibly be impeached by the state house of assembly
whose members cannot dare to look Kalu in the eyes. If
Theophilus narrowly succeeds to gain a reasonable
number of the members of the house and powerful party
members to his side as this would expectedly dominate
his game plan, then, the PDP may decide to offer him
the olive oil as it would be easier for them to trade
political support for an incumbent governor and not
the out of power god father. The reality however is
that Abia is too complex a terrain for political
analysts and scenario experts to access and make
authoritative predictions about its probable future.
However, if the reason why Kalu left the PDP is well
understood, the shape of things to come can be place
in their proper context.
The indubitable reason why Kalu left the PDP was
because of Obasanjo who launched a deadly attempt to
get Kalu and his mother, Eunice Kalu, out of political
reckoning. Obj succeeded in barring both the mother
who was once on his swinging female politician list
and Kalu from the Aso-Villa. Religious effort was also
made to use the EFCC to get the duo behind the bar.
Now that the likes of Theophelius Danjuma- a renowned
anti-Obasanjo person- are back in the party, then,
Kalu’s possible re-entrance into the party would find
willing and supporting hands in some of these
elements, thereby increasing the possibility that he
would again, exert considerable influence if he
crosses over to the PDP.
However, the idea of a mega party may in the face of
the bleak future ahead of the opposition parties
become realized, but, this would preclude Buhari who
would be flying the ticket of one of the unknown
registered political parties. The expected internal
and unavoidable political crises which would render
the AC and ANPP practically inactive and the much
anticipated stability that the PDP would witness would
create a sense of unison in the minds of some
individuals who would genuinely sparehead the
formation of a new mega party. Another factor that
would assist in the convergence of minds that will
bell the cat of forming the mega party is the
declaration of IBB’s intention for the presidency.
This will generate allot of heat across the length and
breadth of the country as a number of well directed
efforts would be made to make IBB have a taste of what
he had done against the destiny of Nigeria by
annulling the 1993 June 12 presidential elections.
Politicians across different divides would pump in
money into efforts aimed at burying the political hope
of IBB, therefore, this would be one of the factors
that would make the mega party make a promising
national presence in the forth coming general
elections.
To enhance its public approval ratings and to secure a
leverage of support within the ranks of retired
military officers, the mega party would offer Colonel
Abubakar Umar its platform to contest the presidential
election. Attempt would be made by Tinubu to be part
of the new arrangement by trading the Lagos AC
support’s for the mega party in exchange for being
appointed Umar’s running mate. This would not succeed
for obvious reasons. The first being the fact that, it
would be difficult to sell a Muslim-Muslim ticket and
the second being that Tinubu would be difficult to
market in the West and beyond. On losing out to
achieve his objectives, Tinubu would anticipatedly
create internal divisions within the AC by preventing
it from being a part of the new mega party
arrangement. The Lagos AC would as it was with the AD
during its troubling times be faced with a similar
debacle and this would in addendum to the earlier
analysis on the future of AC deepen the crises within
the party. Tinubu may end up being a possible victim
of the heat that this would generate as his political
antics would see him lose the control of Lagos AC to a
new set of cabal who would be playing the Fashola’s
card. With this, the role of the AC in the predicted
mega party would be minimal, if not completely done
away with.
By the same token, a new regime of Holy Ghost anointed
and inspired radical leader which the frailness of
Yar’Adua’s health has also given birth to is worth
mentioning. This is evident in the case of one
self-acclaimed man of God, who has been shuttling
between the synagogue and the barricade. Pastor Tunde
Bakare who is leading the Obasanjo sponsored Save
Nigeria Group would add a new religious look to the
face of the elections in Nigeria. Reliable insiders’
reports have it that some of the displaced Bank
MDs/CEOs who have closely-knitted connections with
some churches have included Bakare’s led SNG as one of
the means through which their fledging financial and
political fortunes could be salvaged. This group had
so far, as reported reliable confidants, offered mouth
watering financial support that can sustain the SNG’s
tempo until the 2011 elections are conducted. The
pastor who would stage a protest against Yar’Adua and
not against the inclusion of some mischievous persons
in the new ministerial list would be seeking some
political concessions by sponsoring candidates for
elective positions. The shape of things to come could
be deciphered in the closed door meeting which
Jonathan held with some pastors who had earlier met
with Yar’Adua. Also, some of the churches who were
terribly hit by the Sanusitization reform of the
banking sector would either collude with Jonathan to
install the president that would guarantee their stake
in some of the banks whose MDs’ were sacked, or as it
would be with Bakare, sponsor some individuals for
elective posts. In deciding who is to contest for
what, the affected Bank MDs would play a significant
role. A smart attempt would be made to get the church
cum failed bank MDs anointed candidates positioned in
different parties so that it would be difficult to
detect such arrangements. However, this attempt would
like Pastor Chris’s effort may not be able to survive
the murky waters of the Nigerian politics as a messy
political rupture would rock the boat of the front
liners of these ideas. How this would come about is
for now difficult to predict as it would take a little
while to re-configure and map out how the existing
background factors would trigger this doom.
Given the foregoing political possibilities, it is
evident that the PDP dominance over the soul of the
Nigerian politics would increase as the opposition
party’s strength as projected would have been
considerably depleted. As earlier suggested that
impeaching Yar’Adua would be politically impossible
and that the process will end up as a reckless
political adventurism, the pro-Jonathan group would
overlook this oddity by launching a well orchestrated
attempt to impeach Yar’Adua. This would be a
calculated attempt to guarantee the political future
of Jonathan as this group cannot withstand the
possible and miraculous return of Yar’Adua. The
pro-Jonathan caucus unlike most political observers is
not ruling out the possible return of Yar’Adua and
therefore, they have been putting in place all the
necessary means of making this a mission impossible.
Senator Kanti Bello, the Senate Chief Whip dropped an
hint of what Jonathan should expect if such sinister
move is made by warning that, “ if the insinuation
that Jonathan does not want to have anything to do
with Yar’Adua is true, it can spell doom for our
party. We should be careful to do what is right.” The
prediction however, is that, it is the Jonathan’s camp
that would be devastatingly hit by the aftermath of
such political suicidal attempt that would, in sooner
time be launched by his group. While the impeachment
attempt lasts, SNG and other new groups would stage
nationwide protests as this have been concluded as the
most pragmatic means of creating a false impression
that the masses are dominantly in support of the
emergence of Jonathan as the substantive president.
To absolve the shock that would arise as a result of
the fall out of the impeachment attempt, a medical
means would be employed to terminate the life of the
ailing Yar’Adua. To achieve this, Jonathan would
facilitate the treatment of Yar’Adua in any of the
developed countries’ hospital. A plan would be hatched
as it was with MKO’s case to terminate the life of
Yar’Adua. There is a strong likelihood that this may
work if the Yar’Adua camp accepts the Jonathan
supposed good gesture that the president should go for
a new round of treatment. In the consequence, this
would add a new dimension to the look of things as the
Jonathan’s agenda of sustaining himself beyond 2011
would become affected. It may be essential at this
juncture to reiterate that Jonathan would not be
contesting for the post of the presidency in the 2011
elections, but would be seeking a running mate ticket.
This is the main reason why he would be making frantic
effort not to allow the possible return of Yar’Adua
witness the light of the day.
Realizing that the candidacy of IBB may attract a
large followership from past and serving
light-fingered governors, especially those who hail
from Jonathan’s region, the latter’s camp has given
due consideration to Ribadu’s need. It was well
thought that, by allowing Ribadu back into the
establishment, those thieving and indicted political
juggernauts who would be bidding for the running mate
ticket being eyed by Jonathan, could be easily kept at
abeyance. Before Ribadu’s case was decided, adequate
information about Ribadu’s present state of mind was
sourced from his confidants. Nuhu Ribadu, who is
reported to have expressed his frustration with how
his career has gone moribund under the Yar’Adua’s
administration, had before now being making frantic
efforts to lead a massive anti-Yar’Adua campaign from
his base in the United State. With this objective of
Ribadu dovetailing with that of the Jonathan’s camp, a
meeting ground was reached between the two parties;
therefore, the news of Ribadu’s highly publicized
return into the country. This was not without major
concession from Ribadu who has promised to cooperate
in respect of Patience Jonathan’s monetary laundering
case which was detected under his chairmanship of the
EFCC. As a reminder, in August 2006, a sum of 104
million naira allegedly stolen from the Bayelsa
state’s covers which was laundered through Patience,
Jonathan’s wife, and smuggled through Mrs. Nancy Eber
Nwosu, the latter’s associate, was discovered and
seized by Nuhu’s men. Also, a mouth watering amount of
13.5 million dollars, allegedly looted from the same
Bayelsa state’s treasury, was in September 2006,
again, seized from Jonathan’s wife, Patience, by the
Nuhu Ribadu’s led EFCC.
At this juncture, it would be necessary to offer
further explanation on why those indicted past and
incumbent governors may offer IBB their support. This
primarily owes to the fact that IBB’s record of
corruption would make it impossible for him to pursue
any meaningful anti-corruption campaign. On this
basis, most of the past governors and a reasonable
percentage of those who are serving at the moment, are
looking at the econo-political advantage they stand to
gain by supporting the IBB’s candidacy. In other
words, if the same IBB old ways is adhered to, IBB’s
presidency, God forbids, would make them enjoy their
loots and at the same time, enable them to be able to
wedge some political influence. However, this is not
without a serious reservation about a possible change
of heart by the maradonic General who is
rumoured to be favourably disposed to seizing his
possible second coming to sanitize the system. This
alleged change of heart leaves much to be desired as
IBB cannot be simply trusted with the leadership of
any decent society. The monster in him will surely
meets with the hardened monster in the masses that are
set to avenge the pains he inflicted on the generality
of Nigerians who voted Abiola into victory during the
2003 presidential election. Trailing this aside, the
General who is renowned to be afraid of naked power
and so chicken hearted as not to dare those who are in
control of power, is zeroing in on the option of
Jonathan as a possible pick for his running mate as
this is one of the ways it was felt that tension which
his candidacy will generate can be reasonably managed.
However, cognizance of the fact that some powerful
anti-IBB elements within the PDP will do everything
possible to frustrate his emergence as the party’s
flag bearer, the gap tooted Minna born devil
reincarnate may possibly opt for the
National Democratic Party. To enable IBB overcome the
barrier within the PDP establishment, Jonathan who has
brought in some IBB’s boys into the government has put
in place some distractive and destabilising ploys
which are projected as a neutralizer of the anti-IBB
forces.
To achieve the aforesaid, Jonathan would open up the
space for a lively internal politics and bickering
within the PDP. This, he has started by paving way for
the likes of Atiku to stage a possible come back into
the fold of the PDP and by opening the doors for the
likes of Danjuma to operate freely within the
presidency after an uneventful dismissal from the same
corridor was orchestrated by the say-never-die Aremu
Obasanjo. Obj would work indefatigably to scuttle the
ambition of IBB by forming a formidable pact with some
strong PDP anti-IBB members, which may include his
former VP, whose political ambition he almost wrecked.
The Danjuma’s group would also engage the Obj’s camp
in a fierce battle, thereby, as planned and hoped
Jonathan’s camp, heightening the possibility that the
Obj’s anti-IBB effects would not be as pronounced as
the latter would have calculated. Nevertheless, based
on some other considerations, especially the
externalities, it is my take that IBB would not only
be humiliated, but, may be forced to embark on a
life-long political asylum. I also have strong
premonition that he may land himself behind the bar.
This chasm would make it possible for the mega party
to gain some concessions, however, it would not be as
significant as the masses would have expected.
Given the look of things as therein projected, little
or nothing tangible would be done by Jonathan to
better the lots of the masses. The shape of things to
come would evidently change the nature of the party
politics in Nigeria and it may evolve a bi-party
arrangement as this would be the only viable means
through which the grip of the PDP over the nation’s
political destiny can be checked.
The writer, Mr. Adebiyi Jelili Abudugana, a former
UNILAG student leader can be reached through
abudugana2000@yahoo.com Comments 💬 التعليقات |