Has the Nile Water War Begun? Tributary Runs Through Ethiopia
23 December 2010By Osman Mirghani
A WikiLeaks document has revealed that Egypt has fears
about the possible impact that Southern Sudan's
secession may have on its Nile water quota, and that
it therefore sought to convince Washington to postpone
the scheduled referendum in the South. However one
does not need to read this document in order to know
that the Nile water issue is open to a number of
complications, and that in the near future this is
something that may come to overshadow all other
regional issues. Anybody listening to the statements,
observing the frantic manoeuvres, or watching the
growing tension, might already feel that the Nile
Water War has begun in earnest.
Ethiopian Prime Minister, Meles Zenawi is leading his
country's organized campaign which is demanding a
redistribution of Nile water resources and the
amendment of old agreements. In a recent statement, he
appeared to fire a provocative ‘bullet' in Cairo's
direction when he claimed that Egypt could not win a
war against Ethiopia over the distribution of Nile
resources. Zenawi revealed the true proportions of
this underlying crisis when he accused Egypt of
supporting rebel groups [in Ethiopia] as part of an
attempt to destabilize the country, due to Egypt's
dispute over the distribution of the Nile waters. In
an interview he conducted with Reuters toward the end
of last month, Zenawi said: "I am not worried that the
Egyptians will suddenly invade Ethiopia. Nobody who
has tried that has lived to tell the story. I don't
think the Egyptians will be any different and I think
they know that." This statement, which was devoid of
the usual diplomatic rhetoric, indicates that there is
a mounting crisis [over the issue of the distribution
of Nile resources] between the two most important
players in this region, which has now entered a new
phase with the use of the war-like language.
On one hand, the largest Nile tributary runs through
Ethiopia, as the country lies at the source of the
Blue Nile which supplies the River Nile with more than
two-thirds of its running water and fertile soil.
Moreover, Ethiopia has one of the highest birth-rates
in the world, and by 2025 its population will have
reached 113, over-taking Egypt to become the second
most populous country in Africa, after Nigeria. Over
the past 30 years, Ethiopia has been stricken by
terrible famine and drought which prompted the
government to erect five giant dams over the past ten
years. This has reignited the old dispute over Nile
water, and the question of how to reconcile the
increasing needs of the Nile Basin countries, and the
limited water resources offered by the Nile.
Egypt, on the other hand, is the primary consumer of
Nile water, and the Nile is considered the country's
chief lifeline. That is why this issue is being
discussed as if it were a matter of life or death.
Egypt believes that Ethiopia is the driving force
behind demands to revoke the old agreements that
govern the distribution of Nile water and calls for
new agreements to be made which would see upstream
Nile countries granted a large share of the Nile's
resources, inevitably resulting in a decrease of
Egypt's share. Nevertheless, Egypt responded in a
diplomatic manner to Zenawi's statement, preferring
not to further escalate the issue. Cairo expressed
surprise at the Ethiopian warning and maintained that
Egyp it was not considering war as an option to
resolve the Nile water issue, stating that it is
committed to a strategy of dialogue and negotiations
to resolve this problem. However Cairo also stressed
that in the event of a solution not being reached,
Egypt would exercise its right to resort to
international law to protect what it deems to be its
historical rights, as defined by international
agreements. After dismissing Zenawi's accusation that
Egypt was supporting rebel groups with the aim of
destabilizing Ethiopia, Cairo accused Zenawi of being
behind the Cooperative Framework Agreement signed by
five Nile upstream states, namely Ethiopia, Uganda,
Rwanda, Kenya and Tanzania. The agreement is also
supported by the Democratic Republic of Congo and
Burundi; however both countries have expressed
reservations about signing this as they are wary of
escalating tensions with the Nile downstream
countries, particularly Egypt and Sudan.
Cairo has launched intense diplomatic efforts towards
the signatories of the Cooperative Framework
Agreement, in an attempt to prevent what it regards as
an Ethiopian move to isolate Egypt, and force Cairo to
renegotiate the distribution of the water resources of
the longest river in the world. The Egyptian
diplomatic efforts towards the Democratic Republic of
Congo and Burundi were successful, yet they failed to
stop the other five countries from signing the
agreement. If the provisions of this agreement are
implemented, this would inevitably lead to a major
confrontation between the Nile countries on the
grounds that this would undermine the former agreement
and allow each country to act of its own volition
[with regards to the Nile water resources] or result
in the formation of two competing blocs, which is
something that could result in war.
Meanwhile, Egypt is intently observing the recent
developments in Sudan, and fears that following next
year's self-determiantion referendum, any newly formed
southern state might side with the Cooperative
Framework Agreement states, especially as there are
strong ties between the ruling Sudan People's
Liberation Movement (SPLM) in South Sudan and
Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda. All three countries
supported the armed struggle and diplomatic efforts of
the SPLM for long years, both prior to the signing of
the Comprehensive Peace Agreement, and afterwards.
Even if a newly formed state of Southern Sudan did not
adopt a confrontational stance similar to that of the
Cooperative Framework Agreement states; its mere
establishment would open the door to re-negotiations
over how the Nile water resources are divided. Some
people have suggested that the water quota for an
independent southern state of Sudan should be taken
from the share granted to Egypt and Sudan or from
Sudan's share alone.
These complexities are further compounded when we take
into account the warnings of environmentalists, who
indicate that the coming decades will see a marked
rise in temperature rates and a gradual decrease in
rainfall in many countries around the world, including
some Nile states. Perhaps the worst case scenario
would be the continued escalation of tensions amongst
the Nile states, at a time where fierce international
competition is taking place over natural resources in
Africa. Needless to say, there are external parties
monitoring the situation, waiting for the slightest
opportunity to incite conflicts and wars.
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