21 Jan 2012 By Tariq Alhomayed There are many expectations that the al-Assad
regime is about to collapse, and that it is only a
matter of time…expectations repeated by politicians on
several levels, which have received the support of
many of the Syrian people involved in the situation,
but not the analysts who rejoiced at the revolutions
in their own countries but denounced the Syrian
revolution. However the question that must be asked
here is: what is the cost of the fall of al-Assad? The press report that was published by our
newspaper yesterday, in cooperation with the British
newspaper "The Guardian", addressed this question,
conveying a number of viewpoints attributed to
different personalities inside Syria, including
Alawites, reflecting the almost unanimous conviction
that it will be difficult for the al-Assad regime to
continue, but everyone fears the price of its
downfall. This is compounded by the al-Assad regime's
current state of weakness, with the Muslim Brotherhood
recently rejecting an Iranian offer to grant the
Brotherhood representation in government on the
condition that al-Assad remains in power! Why would
al-Assad do that if he was in a position of strength,
especially as he described the Muslim Brotherhood in
his latest speech as the "Devil's Brotherhood"? Hence, concerns over the potential costs of the
fall of al-Assad must be reflected at the regional and
international levels. Delaying the fall of al-Assad
will entail subsequent security and economic
complications, not only for Syria, but for the region
as a whole. Of course, in the event of al-Assad
remaining in power, the price will also be high for
the Syrians and the region, specifically Turkey, as at
this point al-Assad would be far more dangerous than
Saddam Hussein following the liberation of Kuwait. Therefore, simply expecting, or waiting for the al-Assad
regime to collapse on its own, without any significant
effort to accelerate this process from our regional
states and the international community, means that the
interests and stability of the region and world at
large is being put at risk. This is not to mention the
dangers that threaten Syria itself, and also the
complications of the post al-Assad phase. Waiting for
the "expected" moment of collapse is dangerous, and
costly, for everyone. The true cost of delaying the fall of al-Assad is
that the Syrian crisis will deepen, and a civil war
will be fuelled. As one Western diplomat said in "The
Guardian": "if you shoot at people for months, you
shouldn't be surprised when they start shooting back",
and this is what is happening in Syria today. Prolonging the life of the al-Assad regime also
means further complicating the solutions for the post
al-Assad phase, and it is inevitable that those who
will pay the highest price will be the Turks, not the
Iraqis. The Baghdad regime, for example, has concerns
regarding the Syrian revolution because it could
awaken the Sunni giant, particularly as the Iraqi
regime is a sectarian system par excellence. Whilst
the Turks are concerned about the future of Syria
following the revolution, out of fear for their
commercial interests and security. Ankara is not a
sectarian regime, it is a democracy, and the survival
of the ruling elite there depends on providing
economic accomplishments to the Turkish people, rather
than sectarian promises cloaked in deceptive slogans
such as "resistance" and so on, along the lines of
what is repeated by the al-Assad regime and Iran's
allies in the region. Hence, it is dangerous to merely wait for the fall
of the al-Assad regime without doing anything to
accelerate this process. This is what those concerned
with the stability of our region must be aware of,
whether we are talking about the Saudis or the Turks,
or even the Europeans and the Americans. Tariq Alhomayed is the Editor-in-Chief of Asharq
Al-Awsat, the youngest person to be appointed that
position. He holds a BA degree in Media studies from
King Abdul Aziz University in Jeddah, and has also
completed his Introductory courses towards a Master's
degree from George Washington University in Washington
D.C. He is based in London. Comments 💬 التعليقات |