30 May 2012 By Abdul
Rahman Al-Rashed Why are the Egyptian
people, or at least some of them, shocked by General
Ahmed Shafiq's first-round success in the presidential
elections, and the fact that he may be chosen as the
next president of Egypt in two weeks? They are shocked
because this is like Hosni Mubarak returning to the
presidency, or one of Gaddafi's children taking power
in Libya, or the Syrian revolutionaries accepting
Maher al-Assad – the brother of current president
Bashar al-Assad – as the next president. Shafiq's
victory in the first-round of the elections,
practically speaking, represents a defeat for the
revolutionaries, but this is not necessarily a defeat
for the revolution. Is his victory a frank message
from a broad section of the Egyptian people to the
effect that they reject the new faces on the political
scene? Or is this evidence that the powers of old have
utilized their charisma, bringing together their
ranks, in order to win the election battle? In Eastern
Europe, including even Russia, some corrective
revolutions have occurred to return old forces back to
power. Although Communism collapsed, some communists
survived, and what is Putin other than a member of the
new generation of the old Soviet system, particularly
as he was a member of the KGB? He was preceded by
Boris Yeltsin, the first president of the Russian
Federation, who had been a 30-year member of the
Communist Party. Shafiq's victory does
not mean the return of the Mubarak regime at all, nor
will Shafiq be a weak president, fearing the protests
of the youth. Whereas if the Muslim Brotherhood win,
this means that the Brotherhood will rule Egypt
completely, from the presidency to the parliament.
The most dangerous
thing that the youth are facing is not the old regime
conspiring against them, nor the hegemony of the
Muslim Brotherhood; rather the youth's greatest enemy
is their own ignorance of the ABCs of the political
process, and this is the sole reason why they lost the
majority of the popular support they garnered
following their quick and astonishing ousting of the
Mubarak regime. In reality, there is
nothing surprising about what we are seeing today;
there were five heavy-weight candidates, two of whom
emerged victorious, whilst despite the media
mobilization in the country half of all eligible
Egyptian voters failed to go to the polls, as was the
case with the parliamentary elections. Had the elections
taking place quickly after the revolution – say in
September, at the latest – perhaps the results would
have been in the youth's favor. The irony is that this
is what Mubarak himself had proposed as plans for his
withdrawal from power. The idea of early elections was
a realistic proposition for those who understand the
political mechanism in a large state like Egypt. The
youth insisted on a range of demands, but elections
and the presidency were not one of these. At a time
when the post of president is the most important,
leaving this vacant was the result of the conflict
that has raged on the Egyptian political scene
following the revolution. The presidential vacuum
justified the military's administration of the
country. The presidential vacuum justified the
presence of the al-Ganzouri government to conduct
business on an interim basis. The presidential vacuum
brought about confrontations that were mostly, in
essence, divisions over how to deal with crises,
ranging from the Israeli embassy crisis to the Port
Said disaster to the Abbasiya [prison] crisis.
Dr. Mohamed ElBaradei,
who won the confidence of the youth for a period of
time, took part in the political battle from the
beginning with the objective of putting an end to the
presidency, and he failed because nobody understood
the logic he was utilizing. He did not call for
immediately presidential elections, but called for the
establishment of a presidential council, which would
include the major political forces, including the
youth, to rule the country for a period of two years.
The Muslim Brotherhood were insistent upon early
parliamentary elections because they – thanks to their
political experience – were aware that they would have
the best chance at these elections, as they had tens
of thousands of political offices and activists
already in place throughout the country. As for the
youth, they enjoyed huge popularity but did not
possess any headquarters, branches, funds, or
political stars. In addition to this, the new
constitution, which should have been drafted before
anything else, as this document is the basis upon
which the entire political process must be based, was
postponed. This is something that was also in the
interests of the Muslim Brotherhood, who emerged
victorious during the legislative and parliamentary
elections, particularly as everybody should be
involved in the drafting of the new constitution, not
just the election winners. This is precisely what
Egyptian political thinker Dr. Abdel Monem Said
asserted as he listened to the complaints and threats
of one Egyptian youth during a political debate. He
said "they are incapable of learning from their
mistakes." These Egyptian youth are angry following
the outcome of the presidential elections because
their political opponents were victorious and are now
threatening to impose a state of instability on the
country. Firstly, rejecting the election results is
contrary to the concept of democracy which the youth
took to the streets for the sake of, revolting against
the Mubarak regime. Secondly, months of chaos and
instability have shown that the general public are
weary, and it is likely that many people voted for
Shafiq precisely for this reason, namely in search of
security and stability. There can be no doubt that the
majority of Egyptian people were happy with the
revolution and the promise of correcting the political
process, uprooting corrupt individuals and
institutions, and improving the living conditions of
the Egyptian people. However fifteen months later,
living conditions are worse than ever, whilst conflict
between different political groups is on-going and the
streets of Cairo have become the scene of
confrontation and violence. Al Rashed is the general manager of Al -Arabiya
television. He is also the former editor-in-chief of
Asharq Al- Awsat, and the leading Arabic weekly
magazine, Al Majalla. He is also a senior Columnist in
the daily newspapers of Al Madina and Al Bilad. He is
a US post-graduate degree in mass communications. He
has been a guest on many TV current affairs programs.
He is currently based in Dubai. Comments 💬 التعليقات |