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05 June 2012 By Dr.
Hamad Al-Majid The situation in Egypt
today has become even more complicated, and Egypt will
experience a period of tension after the two teams
that will compete at next month's presidential run-off
vote have been revealed. There is the "Muslim
Brotherhood" team led by Captain Mohamed Mursi, who
will face off with the "former regime" team that is
captained by Ahmed Shafiq. This match will be no less
heated than the frenzied Cairo derby between those
perennial rivals, Al-Ahly S.C. and Zamalek S.C.
If the Muslim
Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice party candidate wins
the elections, his government will enjoy a degree of
comfort in its dealings with the Egyptian parliament
and Shura Council, particularly as Islamists – and
those who sympathize with this trend – enjoy a strong
presence there. However a Mursi-run government would
find it more difficult to run the country because
"Mubarakists" are still in control of major pillars of
the Egyptian state, including the military, the
security apparatus, the media, the economy and even
the political scene. Even if Dr. Mursi is able to
replace these figures, Mubarak's presence remains
deeply-rooted throughout the country. To clarify this image,
let us look at a realistic example. Successive
Pakistani leaders – with different political
affiliations and agendas – including Zulfikar Ali
Bhutto, Benazir Bhutto, Muhammad Zia-ul-Haq, Pervez
Musharraf, Nawaz Sharif and others – all sought and
failed to bring the Pakistani military under control.
Even the US, in spite of the pressure it has exerted
and its political and economic influence, has reached
the point of complete exhaustion in its attempts to do
this. In fact, the revelation that Osama Bin Laden was
in hiding in a residential compound not far from a
Pakistani army base and intelligence headquarters
represents the deathblow to US attempts to control the
Pakistani army. This is precisely what
prompted critics, even those who are sympathetic with
the Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice party, to blame
the Muslim Brotherhood for "monopolizing" the scene,
namely Egypt's parliament, Shura Council, Higher
Constitutional Committee and most recently, the
presidency. In fact, the Brotherhood should have left
the presidency for somebody else, and this would have
served as a strong message of reassurance to the
political powers in Egypt. This is not to mention the
fact that even if a non-Brotherhood candidate is
elected as president, he will nevertheless serve as a
minesweeper for the Muslim Brotherhood, getting rid of
all the Mubarak landmines present on the political
scene, along the lines of Tunisia's Ennahda Movement
which allowed President Moncef Marzouki to serve as a
minesweeper for Ben Ali's political landmines. Whilst
it is true that the Ennahda Movement does not agree
with Marzouki's positions and views, they share an
antagonism towards Ben Ali and a willingness to remove
any traces of his presence. As for what if Ahmed
Shafiq wins the elections, this scenario would be
precisely the same, although reversed. The Islamists
in general and the Muslim Brotherhood in particular,
now being in a position of power, will exhaust his
rule. Whilst it is true that Mubarak – and prior to
him Sadat and Nasser – enjoyed absolute authority, the
Brotherhood nevertheless remained a thorn in their
side, and they all failed to tame or weaken the Muslim
Brotherhood organization in spite of the mass
detentions, torture, political constraints and the
media war that was waged against them and their
ideology. This was due to the Brotherhood's strong
influence, organization and popularity. In this case,
what can we say about a post-revolution president with
limited powers, alongside a parliament that was freely
elected, which is something that the entire world is
testifying to? Dr. Hamad Al-Majid is a journalist and former
member of the official Saudi National Organization for
Human Rights. Al-Majid is a graduate of Imam Muhammad
Bin Saud Islamic University in Riyadh and holds an
M.A. from California and a Doctorate from the
University of Hull in the United Kingdom. |