31 July 2012 By Abdul
Rahman Al-Rashed Before the explosion at the national security
building, which killed a number of prominent security
and military leaders in the Syrian regime, a Russian
message arrived confirming acceptance of the so-called
"Yemeni solution", i.e. Bashar al-Assad stepping down
and a consensus government being declared. However,
the Russia's approval came with a note saying that the
solution would be in form only, to satisfy the
opposition, while the al-Assad regime would remain in
key governance positions. The Arab mediator rejected
the proposal. Then came the shock of the national security
building explosion, and the revolutionaries arrived in
Damascus, swiftly and surprisingly capturing border
points. Suddenly, the al-Assad regime and its allies
began to reiterate their acceptance of the Yemeni
solution, but we do not know how serious they are this
time. Perhaps the regime is ready to pack its bags and
leave, and perhaps it has no other option to stop the
advance of the rebels in the conflict areas, including
Damascus. If it is indeed ready to step down, should we
negotiate with the regime now or has that offer
expired, and hence we should expect the fighters to
seize the presidential palace, as in Libya? Clearly the Syrians are divided over this issue.
One side wants to negotiate and accept the
transitional phase. This has been expressed by Syrian
National Council member George Sabra, who explicitly
said two days ago: "We would agree to the departure of
Assad and the transfer of his powers to a regime
figure, who would lead a transitional period like what
happened in Yemen". The features of such a proposal
appeared with the emergence of dissident Brigadier
General Manaf Tlass in Jeddah. This sentiment has also
been expressed by Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Hamad
bin Jassim, who said on the sidelines of the recent
Arab ministerial meeting in Doha: "There is an Arab
consensus that Syrian President Bashar al Assad should
step aside quickly in return for safe exit". For the
first time, Arab countries will ask the Syrian
opposition and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) to form a
transitional government. However, there is also a Syrian side that wants to
fight until the end, because the time for negotiation,
in their view, has expired, and as the opposition
marches towards the palace it is only a matter of time
until the regime falls. A third group is as yet undecided, hamstrung by
disagreements over which figures could be entrusted
with the formation of the next government. Although emotions are more inclined to the second
side, which calls for the continuation of the
fighting, rationality and experience warn against
drifting behind this thought process. The fall of the
regime has become almost certain with the significant
combat successes achieved by the rebels in recent
weeks, but the situation remains difficult because of
the regime's military capabilities, using aircraft,
tanks and guns, and its ability to commit more
massacres whilst being protected by Russia's veto. In
the end, al-Assad will travel to either Iran or
Russia, but fighting until then does not ensure any
form of agreement. Fighting until the end may cause
the complete collapse of the military and security
institutions, which consist of more than half a
million elements who could be transformed into armed
gangs. Is it in the national interest to destroy the
state and drag liberated Syria into internal strife
and wars fuelled by parties such as Russia, Iran and
Hezbollah?! Is it not completely wrong to think that
the end of Bashar will automatically bring about the
end of his unjust state? In reality, Bashar's power
came to an end last year when Syria as a whole began
to peacefully demonstrate against his regime. We all
know that his reign has come to an end, but we are
afraid that he will leave the country in ruins, having
cultivated strife and transformed Syria into scorched
earth for years to come. He may even succeed in
dividing the country. These are genuine concerns. Maintaining the state
is more important than enacting revenge against Bashar,
for he will have to take responsibility for his crimes
no matter where he tries to escape. If it is possible
to maintain the state through a power handover, as
happened in Yemen, and to maintain the institutions of
the state, this will cut off the path for Iran and its
affiliates. This will enable the Syrian people to
build the regime that they want, and build a better
future for their children in a united and stable
country.
Al Rashed is the general manager of Al -Arabiya
television. He is also the former editor-in-chief of
Asharq Al- Awsat, and the leading Arabic weekly
magazine, Al Majalla. He is also a senior Columnist in
the daily newspapers of Al Madina and Al Bilad. He is
a US post-graduate degree in mass communications. He
has been a guest on many TV current affairs programs.
He is currently based in Dubai. Comments 💬 التعليقات |