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10 July 2012 By Tariq Alhomayed With the ongoing battles in the heart of the Syrian
capital, the Syrian crisis may be carving out a
different path with surprising results. Now the fires
of the Syrian revolution are close to engulfing the
tyrant of Damascus himself! The news that filtered
through yesterday shows that al-Assad's grip is now
shaking, and that he has not only lost control of
large parts of Syria but perhaps even Damascus. Yesterday, the Israeli Director of Military
Intelligence, Major General Aviv Kochavi, told the
Knesset that al-Assad had transferred his troops from
the Golan Heights to Damascus and other internal
conflict areas. Likewise, the British Foreign
Secretary, speaking from Jordan, said: "The situation
is so grave and so unpredictable that I don't think
any option should be ruled out in the future", whilst
the French and Americans issued warnings of al-Assad
transferring chemical weapons to various sites within
Syria, in addition to Baghdad calling on Iraqi
nationals to leave! All these statements, events and
information suggest that the situation in Syria is
moving towards a new turning point, which may involve
many surprises, and so the logical question is: How is
al-Assad's thinking now? In order to answer this question we must be aware
of a vital matter, namely that those who have met al-Assad
recently say that the man lives in his own world and
is completely detached from reality. This is evidenced
by his last three interviews, showing that he does not
care what is going on around him and does not sense
any danger. This is also what Syria's dissident
ambassador to Iraq confirmed, when he said in a recent
interview with the Sunday Telegraph that al-Assad was
detached from reality. However the latest
developments, and what is happening on the ground in
Syria and Damascus in particular, in terms of battles
and genuine, successive divisions, suggest that al-Assad
has re-evaluated his position and we are now
discovering the true order of his priorities. The
withdrawal of al-Assad's forces from the Golan Heights
means that the real enemy for the Syrian President and
his regime is not Israel, but rather the Syrians. This
is despite the fact that the tyrant of Damascus, and
his allies such as Hassan Nasrallah, still talk about
the resistance and confronting "the Israeli enemy",
which tells us that al-Assad will not drown alone, but
with all his allies, Nasrallah included. Al-Assad's thought process now is confined purely
to carrying out more death and destruction, as all the
political solutions are vanishing in front of him and
there is no room for more tricks and procrastination.
The Syrian President's options to escape are also
limited; he can either flee to Tehran or meet the same
fate as Gaddafi, as it is no longer possible to secure
the same terms as Ali Abdullah Saleh, Ben Ali or even
Mubarak! Therefore, al-Assad is left with Gaddafi's fate, or
a sudden regime collapse, his escape, and then perhaps
a military coup. This is a long overdue development
that is now becoming increasingly likely with the
continued fighting in Damascus. The fact that al-Assad
is bringing more troops from the Golan Heights means
that he has become a prisoner reliant on his forces,
rather than their leader as he was in the past,
especially with the increasing pace of military
defections. Tariq Alhomayed is
the Editor-in-Chief of Asharq Al-Awsat, the youngest
person to be appointed that position. He holds a BA
degree in Media studies from King Abdul Aziz
University in Jeddah, and has also completed his
Introductory courses towards a Master's degree from
George Washington University in Washington D.C. He is
based in London. |