Suddenly, I realized that a new star had appeared on
the political firmament of Israel. Until yesterday I
did not even know of its existence.
A respected public opinion poll posed a Nixonesque
question: From which politician would you buy a used
car? The answer was stunning: Not a single politician
reached the mark of even 10 percent. Except one who
would be trusted by a massive 34 percent of potential
voters: A certain "Nobody."
This was not the only question to which the voters
showed a marked preference for this mysterious
candidate. When asked with which candidate they would
like to spend an evening, only 5 percent preferred
Shelly Yachimovitch, and even the smooth Benjamin
Netanyahu attracted only 20 percent, while Nobody
easily headed the list with 27 percent.
Whom do you trust most? Again "Nobody" won with 22
percent, followed by Netanyahu with 18 percent. Who
cares most for you and your problems? 33 percent voted
for "Nobody," followed far behind by Shelly with 17
percent and Netanyahu with only 9 percent.
I have never met this "Nobody." I don't even know
whether he/she is young or old. Why did he/she not set
up a new party, seeing that it would be a shoo-in?
Since it is too late to enter the fray, it is
absolutely certain that Netanyahu will be the great
victor. He will be the next prime minister. He simply
has no competitor.
In many languages, including Hebrew, one speaks of
the "political game." But, as far as I know, nobody
has yet devised a real game, even for children.
I have taken the trouble to do this now. I hope
that it will help some of my readers to wile away the
time on a dull evening when there is no "reality" show
on the screen.
The game is on the lines of Lego. Each block
represents one of the parties.
The aim is to set up a government coalition.
Since the Knesset has 120 members, you need 61 to
set up a government.
You might feel safer with 65, at least, since a
number of members are always carousing around abroad
and have to be frantically called home for critical
votes. Israelis like to travel around the world,
especially if somebody else (like the Knesset) pays
for it.
For creating a coalition, you should observe the
following principles: First, your own party must be
strong enough to overcome any possible opposition
within the government itself.
Second, the coalition must be balanced, so that you
will always be exactly in the middle on any issue.
Third, it must include enough members so that no
single party is big enough to blackmail you by
threatening to leave the government on the eve of a
crucial vote.
Some unfortunate candidates for the prime
ministership in the past have found this job so hard
that they had to ask the President of the State for an
extension of the time allotted to them by the law.
Actually, this is the most important of all
decisions you will have to make until the next
elections, including decisions about wars and such. If
you get it wrong at this juncture, your government is
sure to meet disaster somewhere along the road.
The polls show that this time you will have a
comparatively easy job. It will depend on your
abilities how successful the outcome will be.
First of all, the building blocks you have to choose
from.
Your own list, Likud Beitenu, the one you set up
together with Avigdor Lieberman, is expected to gain
between 35 and 40 seats. All other parties will be
markedly smaller. There is no party in the 20-35 seats
range.
Shelly's Labour Party is hovering between 15 and
20, competing with four parties between 9 and 15.
These are Tzipi Livni's Movement (that's actually its
name, The Movement); Ya'ir Lapid's There is a Future
(contrary to those who believed that the world would
end last week); the oriental-orthodox Shas and Naftali
Bennett's The Jewish Home.
Naftali who? Bennett is the great surprise of these
elections. He appeared from nowhere, a successful
high-tech entrepreneur with a tiny kippa, who has
managed a hostile takeover of the moribund
National-Religious party.
He has succeeded in throwing out all its venerable
leaders and become the sole boss. Within a few weeks
he has doubled the party's share of the polls by
outflanking Netanyahu on the right and voicing
opinions which some consider outright fascist.
Where does Bennett get his supporters from? From
the Likud, of course.
Bennett was once Netanyahu's office chief of staff,
but made the fatal mistake of running afoul of
Sarah'le, the boss' wife (or, some say: The real
boss.) Now a furious battle is raging. Bennett accuses
Netanyahu of supporting the two-state solution (which
nobody in Israel and the world believes) and Netanyahu
attacks Bennett for announcing that he, as a soldier —
a major in the reserves — would disobey an order to
"remove a Jew from his home" The "home" in question
being, of course, a settlement on Palestinian land.
Since the Likud itself has become far more extreme
since the recent primary elections, and since the
addition of Lieberman's cohorts makes it even righter,
the looming confrontation with Bennett will be a
riveting fight between the extreme right and the more
extreme right. There is also a most extreme right: The
disciples of the late unlamented Rabbi Meir Kahane,
who, however, will probably not pass the two-percent
minimum hurdle.
Coming back to the party lists: Apart from the
Likud and the five "medium- sized" parties, there are
six small parties. The most important of these by far
is the Ashkenazi Orthodox bloc, Torah Jewry. Then
there is Meretz, the only Jewish party that admits to
being left-wing. Of equal size are the three Arab
parties (including the Communists, who are mainly Arab
but who also have a Jewish candidate). And then there
is poor Kadima, the largest party in the outgoing
Knesset which is now struggling to overcome the two-
percent curse. Sic transit gloria mundi.
So now you can set to work. Remember: The aim is 61
members at least.
The most natural coalition would be an alliance of
the Right. Likud-Beitenu, the Jewish Home, Shas and
the Orthodox will probably add up to around 67 seats.
They could implement the policy of rapidly expanding
the settlements and preventing the creation of a
Palestinian state, keeping up the eternal occupation
and not giving a damn for world opinion.
The drawback: This composition would put an end to
any pretense about your adherence to the two-state
solution and your desire for peace. You would stand
naked before the world. Israel's international status
would plummet, with possible dire consequences.
Also: you would be open to permanent blackmail from
the combined Shas- Orthodox block, which might demand
huge additional sums for its ghettos, such as higher
subsidies for their children (8-10 per family),
exemption from work and military service and much
more. Also, you would not be located in the middle of
your government, but to the left.
To prevent this, you might want to add some
centrist spice to the brew.
At least three party leaders will line up before
your door the day after the election: Shelly, Tzipi
and Ya'ir.
Formulating the next government's program should
pose no problem.
None of the three have said anything that could
disturb you. Actually, they have not said much about
anything. So take your pick.
Why not take all of them? That would make a
National Union (always popular), with only "the Arabs"
and Meretz left outside. A coalition of 100 members.
Ah, but there's the rub. Two rubs, actually.
First, in such a coalition, you will be in a
minority. You might not be able to turn your every
whim into law and zigzag happily along.
Second, how do you distribute the ministries? That,
after all, will be the main — if not the only — demand
of all these leaders, as well as your own party
functionaries.
There will be at least three candidates for
Defense, four for the Treasury, two for the Foreign
Office (unless the courts send Lieberman to prison.)
So here the real game starts. Which party to include,
which to exclude? Do you take Shelly and leave Bennett
outside? Or perhaps include Ya'ir and exclude Shas
(teach them a lesson, alright!) Or let Tzipi in, as an
alibi for those troublesome Americans and Europeans
and prevent the " de- legitimization" of Israel, and
forget about Shelly, who says she loves the settlers?
As you see, the possibilities are almost infinite.
You have 25 days to go.
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