The Iraqi Spring And The Iranian Autumn: The Possibility That al-Maliki Could Fall At The Hands Of Iran
14 January 2013By Tariq Alhomayed
The leader of the Sadrist trend, Muqtada al-Sadr,
warned that "the Iraqi Spring is coming" after Iraqi
Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki threatened to use force
to disperse a protest along the international road in
Anbar province ten days ago. So is the Iraqi Spring
really coming? The simple answer is that the Iraqi
Spring will be the Iranian Autumn.
Al-Maliki has not overcome the storm he is facing;
rather it has transformed into a hurricane, and those
that will fall this time are the Iranians, not the
Iraqis. Tehran certainly would not be able to bear the
fall of the criminal al-Assad regime and the uprooting
of its ally al-Maliki in Iraq, for this would be a
tough Iranian Autumn, especially with the Iranian
presidential elections around the corner, not to
mention other issues soon to come to a head such as
the Iranian nuclear program. All this could push Iran
to accelerate the fall of al-Maliki, before the fall
of al-Assad, by replacing al-Maliki as Iraq's Prime
Minister with another, more acceptable figure. This is
what many in Iraq must be alert to, especially some of
the Sunnis there. They must distance themselves from
such sectarianism and not raise pictures of Saddam
Hussein in their protests. Just as al-Sadr warned them
himself, and he is right, it is possible to turn the
Iraqi storm into a hurricane to uproot al-Maliki, even
before he uses the force he is threatening.
Al-Sadr has entered into the anti-Maliki
demonstrations, and certainly the Kurds will follow,
especially with al-Maliki's continual threats towards
them. Of course the Sadrists and the Kurds understand
– along with other Iraqi political forces – the
seriousness of what al-Maliki is doing in Iraq. These
factors could all force Iran to take a step, along the
lines of "jumping before you are pushed", to replace
al-Maliki with another figure capable of achieving the
minimum level of Iraqi consensus, especially as al-Maliki
has burned his bridges with the bulk of the Iraqi
political trends. Iran, which is doing all it can
today to prevent the inevitable fall of al-Assad,
cannot afford the fall of another strategic ally,
Iraq. This would be a difficult blow to take for the
mullah's regime in Iran, which, as noted above, has
other important and decisive concerns, whether
externally or internally.
The fall of al-Maliki, as threatened by al-Sadr
through his claim that "the Iraqi Spring is coming",
means that Iran's hands in the region will be cut off,
and the magic would turn against the magician. Just as
Iran thought there would be no Syria without al-Assad,
Tehran could soon find itself without any state-level
allies in the region, including Iraq and Syria.
Thus, as long as the active Iraqi parties mobilize in
a coordinated manner, and with al-Maliki countering
the demonstrations with force, and some of the Sunnis
in Iraq realizing that the time now requires
intelligence not emotion, especially when it comes to
raising pictures of Saddam Hussein and other divisive
acts, then we should not rule out the possibility that
al-Maliki could fall at the hands of Iran, before the
fall of the tyrant al-Assad. This would be in order to
preserve the minimum of Iran's interests in the
region. Yet the fall of al-Maliki at the hands of the
Iraqis, through the so-called "Iraqi Spring" that al-Sadr
has warned of, will likely represent the Iranian
Autumn, and this is what wise minds everywhere must
encourage!
Tariq Alhomayed is the Editor-in-Chief of Asharq
Al-Awsat, the youngest person to be appointed that
position. He holds a BA degree in Media studies from
King Abdul Aziz University in Jeddah, and has also
completed his Introductory courses towards a Master's
degree from George Washington University in Washington
D.C. He is based in London.
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EsinIslam.Com
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