Alawites Not Responsible For Assad's Survival: Regime In Damascus Will Fall No Matter How Long The Struggle Takes
06 February 2013
By Abdul Rahman Al-Rashed
I read Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki's
statements to Asharq Al-Awsat more than once because
he addresses a number of sensitive issues very frankly
and it is not often that a politician reveals his
thoughts to others.
He knowingly spoke of Syria, where he lived for many
years when he was an opposition figure. He said he was
not surprised by the path of the ongoing struggle and
that he was not surprised by the regime's ability to
survive. He also said that during a visit to
Washington he predicted this outcome during talks with
the US president, vice-president, and the then
secretary of state. Maliki revealed that they thought
Bashar Al-Assad would fall within two months, while he
assured them that Assad would not fall even after two
years. Why? Maliki claims that the regime in Syria is
a sectarian one; the presence of Alawites in power
provides a safety net for the sect and if they were
ousted they could all be wiped out. The Iraqi prime
minster believes the Alawites are fighting because
they have to, because of their survival instinct, and
that is why the regime has remained in power.
Although Maliki's assessment of the regime's resolve,
entrenched by the Alawites, is correct, it is not true
that Assad has survived for all this long time, amid
the destruction, because the Alawites are more united
and determined or, as he put it, because they are in a
state of desperation. No. Although his sect is an
important factor behind Assad's survival in power, it
is not the reason why his regime is still standing.
The real reason is clear; Assad's regime is fighting
with the help of Russia and China. It is confronting a
huge popular uprising of millions of people who lack
both protection and support. These people are fighting
with primitive weapons and confronting warplanes and
tanks with rifles. Such a war never results in a
landslide victory, and indeed there may never be a
decisive outcome.
Maliki and the Dawa party fought Saddam Hussein for 20
years, but they did not succeed in seizing one inch of
Iraq because the country's borders were closed and
their weapons were inadequate. When Saddam fell, he
fell because of the ?American Armada?. Assad's regime
has not remained afloat because the Alawites have
stood by him, far from it. They only stood by Assad
after the saw his success in garnering Russia and
China's support, and in neutralizing the Western
countries and the Vatican, alleging that a sectarian
war was being carried out against the Christians and
Druze and that the revolution was seeking to establish
an extremist religious regime.
The rebels have only received a little from Turkey and
barely anything from Jordan; they are truly exposed.
They carry primitive weapons with fighters sharing the
same rifle, and when ammunition runs out they are
forced to withdraw from the sites they have captured.
Saddam fell easily in 2003 because America, the
world's superpower, put an end to him in eight days.
Previously, Saddam survived for eight years when Iran
fought him and killed a million without success. What
I mean is that the balance of power is not only
entrenchment, determination and faith. The Afghan
mujahedeen expelled the Soviets with ?Stinger?
missiles that paralyzed the Russian warplanes, with
the massive aid of advanced Western weapons. Likewise
the Viet Cong in Vietnam, with generous Chinese
backing, were able to overthrow the pro-US regime
while the liberation movement in Chechnya failed
against the Russians because it was isolated.
Today, the Syrians are fighting a security-dominated
and suppressive regime that resembles all fascist
dictatorships. However, it cannot be labeled
sectarian, as Maliki says, because Sunni and Christian
pockets are fighting alongside Assad because they
share the same interests or fears.
Both sides are fighting tirelessly. It is an absurdly
bloody conflict because of the hesitance of the
international community, and we are now facing the
biggest massacre of the 21st century. We have not
known of a war where only one party uses warplanes,
tanks, and artillery on a daily basis to shell cities
and kill thousands of civilians month after month.
Show me one such scene from our modern history.
What Maliki says of the Alawites' heroism is not true
and is not even important. The fact is that without
Iran and Russia's generous support, the Assad regime
would run out of ammunition and fuel for its tanks and
warplanes.
However, what Maliki did not deny-or did not speak of
for that matter-was the end of the war. He knows it
well; Assad's regime in Damascus will fall no matter
how long the struggle takes.
Al
Rashed is the general manager of Al -Arabiya
television. He is also the former editor-in-chief of
Asharq Al- Awsat, and the leading Arabic weekly
magazine, Al Majalla. He is also a senior Columnist in
the daily newspapers of Al Madina and Al Bilad. He is
a US post-graduate degree in mass communications. He
has been a guest on many TV current affairs programs.
He is currently based in Dubai.
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