Syria And The Shi'ite Extremist Factions: The Collapse Of The Assad Regime Inevitable
11 March 2013
By Dr. Hamad Al-Majid
The issue of extremist groups in the Syrian revolution
has become like a problematic ailment where the
patient avoids discovering the extent of its severity,
and declines to begin the treatment phase. In fact, he
avoids even talking about it or being reminded of it.
Yet two years on from the outbreak of the brave Syrian
revolution, its power centers have effectively been
divided in two; the political opposition based abroad
and the revolutionary opposition on the ground. This
is a very complex issue and we must talk about it
openly.
I realize that in the current phase of conflict
against the Assad regime and its fierce ally Iran, the
focus has been on uniting all arrows in the direction
of this sectarian duo in order to topple the regime
and then break the back of Iranian influence in the
region. However, this does not prevent us from taking
two parallel tracks, one that supports the efforts of
the revolution financially, militarily, and
logistically, in order to achieve its objectives, and
a second to examine the complex map of the Syrian
opposition in all its guises, especially the extremist
groups that adhere to Al-Qaeda or at least share
ideological traits with it. This form of early
treatment would greatly reduce the complexity of the
transfer of power after the collapse of the Assad
regime, with all indications on the ground suggesting
that this collapse is inevitable, even if it takes a
long time. We cannot grope around this issue, rather
we must talk about it frankly and transparently and
this stage. It is not right to skirt around
"extremist" revolutionary elements that could pose a
threat to the revolution itself after the fall of the
regime.
The Syrian revolution's recent phase—with the military
victories, the capturing of cities and airports, and
the political achievements including international
recognition for the Syrian opposition—resembles to a
large extent the stage before the fall of the
communist regime in Afghanistan. One of the most
prominent similarities between the two cases is the
reluctance to address the issue of extremism, avoiding
any talk about the deep contrasts between opposition
factions while victories are being achieved and before
the regime has fallen.
In Afghanistan, those who warned of the potential
dangers after the fall of the communist regime were
considered weak and poisonous influences in the eyes
of the Mujahedeen. They were accused of taking cheap
shots at the Afghan jihad movement and undermining its
achievements, and in some cases they were even labeled
as traitors. However, with deep regret, the days
following the fall of Kabul proved them right.
The security situation in Afghanistan deteriorated—in
terms of the number of victims and the massive
destruction—until a "shining light" emerged in the
form of the Taliban, exploiting the weariness of the
Afghans and their dissatisfaction towards the
Mujahedeen who had exhausted the country's resources.
Whether we like it or not, we can expect a difficult
and very complicated situation in Syria after the fall
of the Assad regime. It is no exaggeration to say that
the map of the Syrian revolution is more complicated
than the Afghani jihad of the 1980s. In the latter
case, Islamic factions formed the overwhelming
proportion of the Afghan opposition, whereas in the
Syrian case there are liberal forces influencing the
political scene, while the revolutionary forces on the
ground are formed mainly of Islamic factions with
diverse ideologies. Within these factions, some do not
even recognize other armed revolutionary movements, so
how do they view the political opposition, in which
both liberals and secularists are active?
Dr. Hamad Al-Majid is a journalist and former member
of the official Saudi National Organization for Human
Rights. Al-Majid is a graduate of Imam Muhammad Bin
Saud Islamic University in Riyadh and holds an M.A.
from California and a Doctorate from the University of
Hull in the United Kingdom.