Kosovo II, Or Geneva II? International Silence Will Lead The Region To Catastrophe
31 August 2013
By Tariq Alhomayed
We are now undoubtedly standing before a pivotal
development in Syria. Bashar Al-Assad has used
chemical weapons in east Ghouta, killing more than
1,300 Syrian, most of whom women and children. So, to
which direction will the compass needle point
regarding the Syrian events? Will it be Kosovo II, or
are we on the way to Geneva II?
There has been a shift in world opinion, in both
political circles and in the media, following the
Ghouta massacre. This has resulted in huge pressure,
not only on the US president, but also on Iran and
Russia, which have both condemned the use of chemical
weapons.
Some may say that there is no change, since Tehran and
Moscow are accusing the opposition of using the
chemical weapons. This is not important, because Iran
and Russia's excuses were clear from the start of the
revolution. What is important here is that they have
acknowledged that chemical weapons were used, and have
asked Assad to allow an international investigation.
This came under international pressure, which is now
calling for a military operation in Syria.
Today, pressure is mounting on President Obama, and
expectations are rising that he is close to military
action against Assad. This is especially due to the
movement of American forces to positions close to
Syria, and also due to the announcement of a meeting
of senior Arab, American and European military chiefs
of staff in Jordan.
Assad's use of chemical weapons does not only damage
the credibility of the Americans, it also limits the
options of the international community. They either
deal with it or accept its consequences. The most
important consequence is that the fact the
international community ignores the massacre of Ghouta
will be seen as a green light to use more chemical
weapons to destroy the revolution.
It seems that this is what the international community
feels right now, especially in Washington. The
American media yesterday revealed that Obama was
considering how to respond to Assad militarily, based
on American intervention in Kosovo with the help of
NATO, when it carried out air strikes for 78 days, and
in which the forces of Miloševic were defeated without
the need for the UN Security Council.
Reports say that Obama is studying the Kosovo option
because the Russians are expected to stop the Security
Council from passing a resolution which allows the use
of force against Assad. This option–Kosovo II–together
with the Russian condemnation of the use of chemical
weapons, means that Moscow and Tehran would work for
Geneva II by giving some concessions in order to avoid
a bigger defeat, if a military strike was directed at
the Assad's forces, in order to reduce current
international pressure on Assad.
What is certain is that the Ghouta crime should not go
unpunished, and if the confidence in Western
intervention in Syria was shaken due to constant
stalling, events indicate that we are heading to a
Kosovo II scenario, especially after Assad's crimes
were proven and his lies uncovered. It has also become
clear that international silence will lead the region
to catastrophe, and may make what we have seen in our
recent history a minor detail when compared to the
horrific episodes that await us on the bloody Syrian
stage.
Tariq Alhomayed is the
Editor-in-Chief of Asharq Al-Awsat, the youngest
person to be appointed that position. He holds a BA
degree in Media studies from King Abdul Aziz
University in Jeddah, and has also completed his
Introductory courses towards a Master's degree from
George Washington University in Washington D.C. He is
based in London.
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