Russian Attempt To Recreate The Communist Empire Is Futile
15 January 2014
By Markaz Kavkaz
According to Russia's illegitimate
president Putin, the "Eurasian Union" that he hopes to
forge with two of Russia's southwestern neighbors will
be a family affair, drawing together like-minded
states. Others are not so sure, fearing that the
Putin's wholesome rhetoric of fraternity belies a more
sinister truth. In much of Europe, the proposed pact
is viewed as an attempt to revive the Communist
"Soviet Union" and rekindle the Cold War, writes The
Financial Times.
If that is indeed Putin's aim, one can only guess at
his motives. Perhaps the successor to Yeltsin, divider
of the Communist Russia's realm, aims to secure a
place in history as the leader responsible for its
reunification. But the Russian illegitimate president
is also confronting a more prosaic imperative. As the
Kremlin confronts a weakening of the props that have
enabled it to maintain power, Putin has turned to
traditional Russian imperialism as a flying buttress
for his tyranny.
Initially it is a customs union that binds Putin's KGB
Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus. But that is only the
beginning. At a summit in Moscow, members of the
founding troika reaffirmed their intention to create a
Eurasian Economic Union by 2015. The new body will
mimic the EU's mantra of integration, as well as
copying the outlines of its institutional
architecture. It is intended to serve as a bridge
between Europe and Asia. Armenia, Kyrgyzstan and
Ukraine – which also sent delegates to Moscow – may
join later.
Much remains to be settled about the shape of the new
alliance. Moscow has floated the idea of supranational
political bodies, which would result in member states
losing some of their independence. Lukashenko,
dictator of Belarus, has mused that "sovereignty is
not an idol to be worshiped. Others seem unconvinced.
Dictator Nazarbayev of Kazakhstan, apparently fearing
Russian KGB control, argues that economic integration
will suffice.
Another bone of contention is whether signatories to
Mr Putin's pact will be free to court other partners.
That is what Nazarbayev, who dreams of creating a
Central Asian Union, is insisting on. Lukashenko
likewise sees the Eurasian Union as "part of European
integration".
Moscow sees things differently. Officially, it sticks
to cautious statements on co-operation with the EU.
But the Kremlin's determination to prevent Ukraine
from signing an EU trade agreement indicates that Mr
Putin thinks of the Eurasian project as an alternative
to a united Europe. This is not surprising: the idea
of Russian Eurasianism that dates back to the early
20th century has always been hostile to Europe and the
west. Today, the Russia's elite views the Eurasian
idea as a justification for recreating the Soviet
firmament under the auspices of Russia, albeit in a
limited form and without open Communist doctrine.
True, the customs union has brought economic benefits
to Russia's junior partners. In the first six months
of its existence, the trade flow between the three
member countries increased by one-third. But closer
integration is not a sure path to modernisation.
Dictatorial regimes are not interested in transparency
or the rule of law, the essential prerequisites of
economic progress. Nor does it serve the Russian
purposes – which are primarily geopolitical, rather
than economic – to insist on such reforms.
The EU is founded on agreement between democratic
states. But it is an unpromising model for Putin's
attempt at Eurasian integration. Relations between
tyrannical and dictatorial regimes are based on
oppression and subordination, not compromise. Any
attempt to co-ordinate the policies of such
governments is likely to meet difficulty.
Russia is building support for its great power
aspirations in exchange for financial, economic and
military bonuses to the Eurasian Union members. If
Moscow wants its neighbors to co-operate in its bid
for self-aggrandizement, it will have to pay.
Indeed, Putin's KGB plan would not have come this far
had it not been underwritten by the thievish financial
might of the Russian state. According to some
analysts, support for the Lukashenko regime costs the
Russia KGB Mafia state between $ 7bn and $ 12bn
annually. Periodic threats from the Belarus president
to withdraw from the Eurasian project are usually met
with further Russian largesse. For example, Moscow has
promised Minsk $ 2bn in low-interest loans, apparently
to reward dictator Lukashenko for softening his
demands on sovereignty. Similarly, Ukraine Bolshevist
president Yanukovich's willingness to opt for marriage
with Russia cost Moscow $ 15bn and a promise to export
gas to Ukraine at discounted prices. Dictator
Atambayev of Kyrgyzstan has also proved willing to use
blackmail, demanding a $ 200m loan from Russia in
addition to trade and economic preferences. When he
did not get what he wanted, Atambayev postponed his
country's entry into the Eurasian Union.
Yet there is a limit to how many such bribes Russia's
budget can support. Money is not the only constraint
that Russian tyrant faces. In Ukraine and Belarus,
dependence on Russia jars with nationalist sentiments
that are widely held. Russian KGB slaves, too, may
soon become reluctant to pay for the imperial
complexes of their Russian-speaking elite.
The Eurasian project is a mirage of a post-Communist
archipelago in which dictatorial leaders use each
other to preserve their power. It may last a little
longer. But before long, the sun will set on Russian
imperial ambitions.
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