Gulf Countries Standing Idly By In Yemen: The Consequences Will Be Immense
19 October 2014
By Abdulrahman Al-Rashed
The Gulf Cooperation Council's (GCC) foreign ministers
made very precise statements to send out a warning
that "the GCC states will not stand idly by in the
face of factional foreign intervention in Yemen." They
had previously stressed that the security of Yemen is
one of the council's main concerns. As such, the scope
of the crisis has widened from the previous situation
when local leaders and the UN envoy were left to
resolve the conflict.
The truth is that the Gulf states that want to help
Yemen have their hands tied because they do not have
tanks, troops or militias on the ground in the
country. They cannot wage a war on the Houthis similar
to the one waged on ISIS in Iraq and Syria. The GCC is
facing a difficult situation in Yemen; for decades
their support was only political and economic. The
Houthi rebels have reneged on all their agreements
signed in recent weeks, even those amended to meet
their demands. They disrespected all the deals they
signed.
The question is not about the illegitimacy of Ansar
Al-Allah, the Houthis, who seized control of the
Yemeni capital. This is obvious after they overthrew
the legitimate government that was recognized by the
UN Security Council and the Arab League and was the
product of the consensus of various Yemeni parties.
The question now is: How can we deter this rebel
militia and restore legitimacy? Will the Security
Council that recognized the Yemeni government be able
to protect it in the same way it is now defending the
Iraqi government against ISIS? What can the GCC do to
protect its initiative and protect the new Yemeni
regime? Does the GCC's statement that they will not
stand idly by mean a possible military action?
The Gulf's actions since the unrest in Yemen erupted
in 2011 were positive. Gulf countries respected
popular demands and convinced Ali Abdullah Saleh to
step down from the presidency. They succeeded in
preventing chaos and massacres between various parties
and supported the project of the temporary
transitional government until the Yemeni people choose
a new leader. This was the best that could have been
done in that serious crisis, despite the bad choice of
the Interim President Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi. This is
why Yemen and Tunisia have emerged as models of the
Arab Spring. In the end, Yemenis were victorious with
the UN's political support and the major international
economic rescue project.
Now, all these achievements are being destroyed by the
Houthi rebels who dared to assault the new regime and
due to the success of the ousted president's
supporters in undermining the army and security force,
leaving the capital defenseless. Accordingly, we ask
the Gulf countries, which believe that an attack on
Yemen is tantamount to an attack on themselves, what
can they do about this? Will they send military forces
to confront the Houthis? Are they ready for a wider
confrontation in case Iran supports its Houthi allies
with troops as it did in Iraq and Syria?
I don't think that a direct military intervention is
the solution now, as it was after Saddam Hussein's
invasion of Kuwait in 1990. This is because it won't
be viable in a collapsed and dangerous country
regarded as the second safe haven for Al-Qaeda, after
Syria. There are limited available options, most
notably the political solution. Despite its failure so
far, it is still the best option to unite various
Yemeni forces, including the South's forces, against
the Houthis and Al-Qaeda. It is also the best option
to urge them to adopt a political project that
excludes the rebels and their supporters and punishes
them economically. The second solution is to support,
re-structure and arm the army, empowering it to retake
cities from the clutches of the Houthis who are taking
arms depots, financial and energy assets in their bid
to control the major cities through puppets who claim
to represent the Yemeni people.
The Gulf countries are facing unusual challenges in
Yemen. The war will not be easy as some rivals are
still unknown. If the GCC succeeds in Yemen, it will
win the respect it deserves in the troubled region,
but if it fails, the consequences will be immense.
Al Rashed is
the general manager of Al -Arabiya television. He is
also the former editor-in-chief of Asharq Al- Awsat,
and the leading Arabic weekly magazine, Al Majalla. He
is also a senior Columnist in the daily newspapers of
Al Madina and Al Bilad. He is a US post-graduate
degree in mass communications. He has been a guest on
many TV current affairs programs. He is currently
based in Dubai.