The End Of A Unified Yemen? People Yet To Express An Opinion Over Putative Division
04 November 2014
By Abdulrahman Al-Rashed
Popular, political and military activity calling for
the secession of southern Yemen intensified this week
in Aden and Hadramout. The possibility of southern
Yemen becoming its own independent state is now closer
than at any time before. While unity and division are
two issues that concern everyone in the region, this
is of particular concern to Yemen's northern neighbor,
the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
The unification of Yemen was backed by people from
both the North and South, but this was not the product
of popular demands or activity. Rather, this was the
result of a struggle over governance in the South
among communist powers. Former President Ali Abdullah
Saleh seized the chance to expand his authority when
the South's political leader Ali Salem Al-Beidh—who
was on the verge of losing his grip on power—called
for unification. Saleh and Beidh signed the
unification agreement in 1989 but instead of achieving
unity and power-sharing, Saleh dominated the scene.
The promises of unification were not fulfilled and
this ultimately became a burden on northern Yemen,
leading to the neglect and appropriation of southern
Yemen. Saleh was thus the sole winner, securing his
own personal rule across the country.
Prior to unification, I met with late Saudi Interior
Minister Prince Naif Bin Abdulaziz who also
represented Riyadh on the joint Saudi-Yemeni
committee. I asked him about Ali Abdullah Saleh's
allegations that Saudi Arabia had objected to unity
and viewed it as a threat. He summarized the nature of
the relationship between Saudi Arabia and Yemen and
its historical roots which date back to the the 1950s.
Prince Naif said that a united Yemen is ideal for
Saudi Arabia as it would be difficult to deal with two
governments—one in Sana'a and the other in
Aden—because satisfying one would mean angering the
other. This is something that would be even more
pronounced when there are tensions between the two
governments. Ultimately, this would result in one of
these governments allying with Saudi Arabia's rivals.
This is something that happened during the Cold War
when rebels in the North allied with the Nasserites
while the South later allied with the Soviet Union.
It's easier for Saudi Arabia to manage relations with
a unified country that has one government while
maintaining good relationships with the different
domestic powers who have historical ties with the
Kingdom.
Truth be told, Saudi Arabia also suffered politically
during the period when Yemen was united; however this
suffering was the result of mere disputes. Former
President Saleh, whose time in office overlapped with
the reign of three successive Saudi monarchs, was
well-known for his attempts to promote and glorify
himself, even if this came at the expense of Yemen and
its people. When former Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein
invaded Kuwait, Saleh sided with Baghdad against Saudi
Arabia. Saleh then allied with the Qataris during the
most recent disagreement with Saudi Arabia. He also
allowed former Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi to fund
Yemeni tribes against Saudi Arabia. Last but not
least, Saleh is responsible for the emergence of the
Houthis. It was under his rule that this simple tribal
group turned into the dangerous political and
sectarian movement that it is today.
The latest developments now raise an important
question, not just for Saudi Arabia but also for the
people of Yemen—whether in the North or South: Is
division really the solution?
I think that the secession of the South will only
serve to exacerbate problems for everybody on both
sides; there is no domestic power that is strong
enough to put an end to this rivalry and secure a
conclusive end to the fighting. In addition to this,
Yemenis do not have a genuine democratic electoral
system which they can rely on. Therefore, division
will only foment chaos across the country, whether in
the North or South.
Despite all this, secession remains an increasingly
possible scenario as a result of the rapid collapse of
the ruling institution in northern Yemen and the
popular frustration at the failure of the unification
agreement. Yemenis are now aware that the unification
agreement was merely part of the personal agenda of
ousted President Saleh. Northern Yemenis have truly
tried to compensate the South for Saleh's sins towards
the people there, displaying a lot of flexibility and
concern regarding Yemeni national unity. This can be
seen in the fact that the posts of president and prime
minister are now occupied by southerners even though
the northerners constitute the sweeping majority of
the population. Despite this, southern political
powers continue to compete with one another and call
for secession as they are aware that this is a demand
that will win them popular backing. Unity has become a
hated idea in the South due to Saleh's policies which
marginalized the region and entrenched poverty.
Due to the weakness of the central government, Yemen's
North is currently facing a political vacuum as the
three major powers continue to fight each other. The
three parties involved in this confrontation are
Saleh's own party, the Houthis and the state. Saleh's
political party and backers are actively seeking to
sabotages the political process by inciting strife and
buying loyalties as part of plans to return them to
power. While the Houthis, who have ties to Iran,
continue to advance, and its militias have seized
major state institutes. As for the state and
government, it is failing and faltering and has only
one card up its sleeve, namely its regional and
international legitimacy based on the recognition of
the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and UN Security
Council respectively.
In the event that the Yemeni government is pronounced
dead, or if it collapses within the next few months
but no such announcement is made, we will no doubt
witness the South announcing its own independent state
and the inevitable end of a unified Yemen. Yemen would
thus begin a new chapter in its history. However, this
history will almost certainly be just as rife with
domestic disputes and foreign interference, while the
biggest victims will be the Yemeni people who have yet
to express an opinion over this putative division.
Al Rashed is
the general manager of Al -Arabiya television. He is
also the former editor-in-chief of Asharq Al- Awsat,
and the leading Arabic weekly magazine, Al Majalla. He
is also a senior Columnist in the daily newspapers of
Al Madina and Al Bilad. He is a US post-graduate
degree in mass communications. He has been a guest on
many TV current affairs programs. He is currently
based in Dubai.
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