What is the political future of these
four guys? Would one of the first three reach the
pinnacle of power and rule Pakistan? Would Nawaz
Sharif survive the burgeoning onslaught from Qadri and
Imran Khan? Let us try to find out the probable
answers to these questions.
General Musharraf has played his
innings for pretty long time. His luck ran out in
November 2007 following the declaration of state of
emergency by him, suspension of constitution and
firing of the chief justice of Pakistan. He resigned
in August 2008, after initiation of impeachment both
by PMLN and PPP.
He made the unbelievable and gravest
blunder of his life by returning to Pakistan in March
2013 to take part in the general elections of 2013. He
nursed a misplaced hope that he is going to emerge on
the political seen by winning elections or as a
runner-up. He could have the slimmest inkling that by
returning to Pakistan his fate would be sealed and
whatever good work he had done during his nine years
tenure would be washed off. He was rather misled and
deluded by his self created utopian fantasies
augmented by a galore of Facebook comments that he was
a darling of the people of Pakistan and that the
moment he would put his step on the soil of Pakistan,
people would gather around him and he would be free to
stalk the land without any let or hindrance.
As ill luck would have it, not only
that he was inhibited for his projected political
maneuvering but worst of it, his nemesis Nawaz Sharif
won the elections and thus he took up the reins of the
government. In due course he was arraigned for four
high profile criminal cases which opened a Pandora box
of interminable judicial floodgate against him. The
cases of treason for suspension of constitution, the
murder charges of Baloch leader Akbar Khan Bugti and
Benazir Bhutto, incarceration of judges and the Lal
Masjid (Red Mosque) case are like millstones around
his neck.
By sheer luck, if he is pardoned he has
no option but to live in exile. In a nutshell he has
none or rather bleak future as a politician or even to
live as a common citizen in Pakistan. If he somehow
stays in Pakistan his many ubiquitous enemies would
always be on the lookout to target him. His best
choice would be to leave Pakistan (if such a
possibility pops up) and spend his remaining life in
foreign pastures.
Dr. Qadri does not have the making of a
politician. He is primarily a religious demagogue like
others of his ilk who are trained in religious
seminaries how to deliver sermons in pompous,
rhetorical and persuasive manner. Indeed he excels in
that skill after teaching and delivering religious
lectures for decades.
Dr Tahirul Qadri is the founder of two
organizations. One is Pakistan Awami Tehrik (PAT), a
political cum religious party that he founded on May
25, 1989. The other is "Minhajul Quran" a kind of
religious forum brought into being in October 1981.
The aim and manifesto of both these
outfits what he espouses is to bring about a green
revolution in Pakistan which is the revival of the
Charter of Medina. Dr. Qadri aspires and struggles
also for a Democratic revolution through electoral
reforms in order to elect people of integrity who will
be subjected to a "pre-clearance" process to qualify
for contesting elections.
What Dr. Qadri misses is that there was
a huge difference between the state of Medina and the
modern society. The socio-economic conditions are
radically incompatible between those prime times and
what the modern societies offer. Moreover the Charter
of Medina was a peace document to grant rights to the
minorities and Muslims alike and it was achieved
through negotiotions and not agitations or sit-ins.
A cleric who opted for a foreign
citizenship aspires to unleash a revolution of his
choice through a set of rules forced and dictated by
show of street force. And let us concede that his
party and politico religious appeal is limited to a
fraction of the entire population.
We are not in France of 18th century
(July 1789) when the peasants and the oppressed
sections stormed the Bastille Fort and thus pioneered
a revolution that spread all over Europe and beyond to
the American Continent. The world has phenomenally
marched ahead and the human rights and democratic
culture, though not so profound, is functional in most
of the societies including Pakistan.
His outbursts are hollow and he lacks
the charisma and vision that is needed to run the
modern societies. He would mess and wreck the
prevailing order that would refine with the passage of
time and with electoral and democratic experiments.
Dr. Qadri does not have a magic wand to make
everything blot-less and transparent. Also he doesn't
have a support from other fellow religious and semi
religious groups. Yet his intentions are sincere and
well-intentioned.
The social media has seen glimpses of
his meeting in London, with the Chaudhry brothers and
chalking out a plan to dislodge the incumbent
government. So his purpose behind this Dharna or siege
is not for the love of the country but to outclass an
enemy by their rivals through such fiery stalwarts as
Qadri is. If the remedies are sought through the
constitutional and legal framework it would be more
laudable, credible and justified. Should we believe
that by replacing the government, the devils would
quit and angels would step in?
Imran Khan who initially looked to be
merely an emotional rabble-rouser has proven to be
tenacious and unyielding cavalier in his anti Nawaz
Sharif campaign. His message and pledges of ushering
Pakistan into an era of good governance with honesty
and accountability as the top most hallmarks for both
the system and the leaders are now being taken
seriously. His supporters are also demonstrating an
amazing endurance and unshakable resolve despite
manifold severe hardships. One has to solute their
resoluteness, unshakable bond and fidelity with their
leader.
The continuous squatting and staying in
Islamabad by his followers and the latest two mammoth
public meetings in Karachi and Lahore offer evidence
to the growing popularity of Imran Khan and his
political party PTI (Pakistan Tehrik Insaf). The way
Imran Khan stood to his ground seems to have made
dents in the visibly impregnable power citadel of the
sitting government of PMLN. More precarious has become
the position of Nawaz Sharif who unsparingly remained
under constant verbal ridicule and bitter tongue
lashing and harsh bashing by Imran Khan and his
political stalwarts.
One can imagine that with the
unrelenting determination to expand Sit-ins and hold
public meetings all over Pakistan, the government may
not be left with sustained and formidable defense for
it to continue with the vulnerable status-quo. As to
when it resigns or announces mid-term elections could
be a matter of conjecture, yet in the face of fierce
storm perpetually gathering on the political horizon
of Pakistan, it might not be able to complete its five
years terms.
One dismal drawback of the incumbent
government is that the major bunch of its ministers
and top notch leaders are mediocre and armchair
lobbyists. They are adept in the drawing room
political maneuvering but are shy and introvert to
come out in the public and show their oratorical
outbursts because in politics only that person carries
the day that can forcefully argue and offers
persuasive defense. That is what the political
battling is all about.
Unfortunately Mr Sharif himself is not
a public speaker and drastically lacks the
professional knack of articulation, dissemination and
eloquence. On the contrary Allama Dr. Tahirul Qadri is
a fiery orator who can go to any length to drive his
assertion in the minds of his listeners.
Imran Khan too has learnt this
invaluable art that is indispensable for a tit for tat
and robust combat in the political arena. Good work
that the PMLN government claims good work and boosting
the economy. Yet the logic of dismantling this claim
is more vociferous and stunning that the claims of the
the PMLN ministers and even the prime minister
himself.
As if like last straw on the camel's
back, the ugly and shameful episode of Gulu Butt and
police firing at the crowd outside Dr. Qadri's
residence has colossally tarnished and bruised the
image of not only Punjab government of PMLN but also
the federal government as well. It simply boggles the
mind that how could any government worth the name
commit such an atrocious and silly blunder? If the
tide turns against PMLN, the perpetrators could be
criminally prosecuted including the Punjab chief
minister.
The writer is a senior journalist,
former editor of Diplomatic Times and a former
diplomat.This and other articles by the writer can
also be read at his blog www.uprightopinion.com
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