28 December 2015By Abdulrahman Al-Rashed
The day after the Russian foreign minister made an impolite statement whilst
sitting next to the Qatari foreign minister announcing the failure of their
meeting to classify terrorist groups from amongst the Syrian opposition,
warplanes which are believed to be Russian killed the leader of Jaysh Al-Islam
in eastern Ghouta in Damascus.
Whether or not the attack was planned by Moscow to impose its demands by force
after the failure of the meeting, the incident was interpreted in this
context. Russia wants to be the one to decide the course of the war and
negotiations in Syria. The Russians have demonstrated their determination to
impose their views on negotiations and muscle flexing by irritating Turkey and
reducing its influence in Syria and Iraq, placing pressure on the Gulf states
and defying the Americans who quickly retreated and accepted to coordinate in
order to avoid escalation.
The Russians might win this round by imposing the Russian-Iranian project to
keep Bashar Al-Assad in his place as president. Before that it imposed its
categorisation of terrorist groups that were banned from the Vienna
negotiations, and a formula for an acceptable political solution. Moscow wants
to be the decision maker in the Syrian conflict. Will it be able to achieve
that?
If it is willing to pay a high price and to continue this adventure, it might
be able to be an authority on the future of governance in Damascus for a
while. It wants to do what the United States did in Iraq, creating and
imposing a political project that exists on the ground despite being based on
weak governance. The Russians are investing a lot in the governance plan in
Syria and their alliance with Iran.
Their reasons for targeting Jaysh Al-Islam are unknown considering that it is
not as frightening as ISIS, and does not have as much political influence as
other organisations like the moderate Free Syrian Army (FSA). By killing its
commander Zahran Alloush, the Russians have created an issue with broad
political repercussions.
Al Rashed is the general manager of Al -Arabiya television. He is also the
former editor-in-chief of Asharq Al- Awsat, and the leading Arabic weekly
magazine, Al Majalla. He is also a senior Columnist in the daily newspapers
of Al Madina and Al Bilad. He is a US post-graduate degree in mass
communications. He has been a guest on many TV current affairs programs. He
is currently based in Dubai.
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EsinIslam.Com
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