Hopes Fade For End To Russia-Turkey Crisis
04 February 2016By Dr. Ali Al-Ghamdi
The downing of the Russian Su-24 fighter jet by Turkish F-16s for entering
Turkish airspace without permission has led to a dangerous escalation between
the two countries, and this badly affects their hitherto strong economic and
commercial relations. From the Turkish point of view, the shooting down of the
plane was imperative as it had violated the country's airspace in spite of
repeated warnings. Ankara claimed that Russian warplanes had earlier violated
Turkish airspace several times and that Russia had apologized for it.
As for Russia, it considers the downing of the plane to be a hostile act.
Russian President Vladimir Putin slammed the act saying: ''This was a stab in
the back by the accomplices of terrorists.'' While strongly rebuffing Turkish
justifications for the act, Putin announced a series of punitive measures in
retaliation for the shooting down of the Russian jet. The Russian pilot who
survived the crash said that the plane had not violated Turkish airspace and
that he had not received any warning before being shot down.
In a move to calm the tense situation and safeguard the common interests of
both countries, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expressed his desire to
meet with Putin face to face on the sidelines of the climate summit in Paris.
But Putin refused to meet with his Turkish counterpart and instead insisted on
an official apology from Turkey. While repeatedly emphasizing that the Russian
jet had not strayed into Turkish airspace, Putin warned of painful sanctions
against Turkey. Subsequently, Moscow imposed a package of sweeping sanctions
against Ankara.
It is unfortunate that the Russian authorities, especially President Putin,
are paying no heed to the language of reconciliation from Turkey in its
attempt to ease the tense relations between the two countries. Erdogan
reiterated that Turkey has never been in favor of triggering tensions and
clashes, but Putin was emphatic when he vowed that Russia would never forget
those who shot down its two pilots. ''We don't know why they did this and God
alone knows about it. However, they will regret what they have done,'' he said
while accusing the Turkish leadership of abetting terror.
Ankara vehemently reacted to Putin's allegation that Turkey is buying oil from
Daesh (the self-proclaimed IS). Erdogan has challenged Putin to prove his
allegations. ''If such a thing is proven, the nobility of our nation would
require that I no longer stay in office,'' he said and added: ''I am asking Mr.
Putin, would you remain in office?'' Erdogan also said that Russia's presence
in Syria is illegal; asking what is Russia doing in that country?
In another development, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov cancelled his
visit to Turkey, which was scheduled before the downing of the Russian jet.
However, Lavrov met his Turkish counterpart in Belgrade on the sidelines of
the conference of the European Security and Cooperation Organization, and this
created some optimism that it would be the beginning of a breakthrough in the
crisis which has erupted between the two countries.
However, there is still no sign of a lessening of Russia's anger over the
Turkish act. This was evident in Russia's declaration that it had stopped
importing goods from Turkey and a series of other punitive measures.
Moreover, Russia sees Egypt as a better alternative to Turkey as a trading
partner. It is interesting to note that Cairo has announced its readiness to
supply Russia with fruit and vegetables. Cairo also sees it as an opportunity
to punish its archrival Erdogan. Russia also suspended tourism to Turkey. This
is a setback to Turkey as it relies heavily on tourism income, especially from
Russian tourists.
A few days ago, Moscow suspended the Turkish Stream gas pipeline project,
which was meant to take Russian gas across the Black Sea to Europe via Turkey.
The giant project was highly significant for both countries and its suspension
will affect the interests of the two states considerably. The loss will be
much greater for Russia considering the large amount of money it has spent on
this strategic project. According to observers, Russia's suspension of the
project was a tactical and preemptive move so as not to give Turkey the
opportunity to suspend the project itself in retaliation for Moscow's punitive
measures.
Here, the crucial question is whether Russia will consider the punitive
measures that it has already taken against Turkey in the economic, commercial
and tourism sectors to be sufficient or if it will resort to military action
as well. Even though Putin has hinted that Russia will not take military
action to punish Turkey, the possibility of such an eventuality cannot be
entirely ruled.
In a retaliatory act, Moscow might resort to shooting down one or more Turkish
warplanes on the pretext that they have violated Syrian airspace if Turkey
fails to apologize as Putin demands. In such an event, the reaction of Turkey
might have disastrous consequences.
— Dr. Ali Al-Ghamdi is a former Saudi diplomat who specializes in Southeast
Asian affairs. He can be reached at algham@hotmail.com
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