21 February 2016By Eyad Abu Shakra
What is President Barack Obama leaving behind to his successor in the White
House? Well, the situation in the Middle East looks a bit worrying after the
lifting of international sanctions on Iran.
Practically, the international community has rehabilitated Iran, shown trust
in its leadership and political stances and overlooked all its international,
regional and even domestic transgressions committed by a regime that practices
its own brand of ‘democracy'. It is a regime whereby the government doesn't
govern, but is rather led by a ‘Supreme Guide' who guides, directs and
commands in liaison with a militia named ‘The Revolutionary Guards'.
Still, one must not belittle the achievements of Iran's ‘non-governing
government'. Ever since Hassan Rouhani was elected president, a new set of
realistic priorities emerged in Tehran which is
totally different from former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's strident
dogmatism.
‘PR' has become the hallmark of the ‘Rouhani Era' in political, economic,
media and security/military matters as approved by the ‘Guide' and
‘Revolutionary Guards'. Among the shining stars of this era is the Foreign
Minister Mohammad Jawad Zarif and his ‘team' of ‘diplomats', intelligence
experts and dealers-fixers active with foreign lobbies, especially in the USA.
However, there are those who claim that such a significant shift has not been
achieved by Rouhani's election but rather his election was very much part of
its script. The dealers-fixers working for the Iranian regime in the USA, UK
and other major Western powers were not implanted and nurtured after the
election of the new president, but have been active in influence buying and
connection building for decades. The seeds of ‘rehabilitating Iran' were sown
some time ago. In fact, it is enough to remember the ‘Iran-Contra' deal in the
days of the bitter vitriol between Ronald Reagan's Washington and Ayatullah
Khomeini's Tehran whereby all talk of the ‘Great Satan' was totally forgotten.
In such a context, the Rouhani presidency becomes exactly the much needed
development to affect a strategic change in the geo-political scene of the
Middle East. Somehow this is not much different from the emergence of ISIS, an
organization born in unfamiliar circumstances with a weird chemistry and
dubious actions.
True to form, here comes Iran to present to the world its credentials not only
as a ‘partner' in economic development and rewarding investments, but also in
fighting terrorism and defending and promoting human rights – including
minorities' rights!
The latter claim could not have been sold had it not been for two facts.
Firstly, Iran's diligent investment in its ‘tentacles' abroad. Secondly, its
understanding of politics is based on interests and not on principles and
morality.
These two facts have always been part of Tehran's thinking since 1979 and have
allowed the current pragmatic leadership to benefit from services provided by
politically influential figures in many global capitals. The next step that
followed was convincing the public in America and Europe that Iran was a
‘useful' partner in several areas unlike its regional adversaries, and a
‘player who knows how to play the ‘game' even if it has to resort to
outbidding those adversaries in upholding the virtues of Islam, revolution and
confronting imperialism and Israel.
The ''Arab Spring'' has come to reveal a very important truth. One needs to
confess. The Arab World neither anticipated it nor was aware of its dimensions
and costs. Indeed, until this moment, and despite the momentous events that
shook and continue to shake the Arab countries affected by that ‘Spring', Arab
public opinion still seems divided about where it is leading, and is confused
as what to do.
This situation has allowed the three major non-Arab powers in the Middle East
– Israel, Iran and Turkey, to flex their muscles and declare their ‘right' to
defend their ‘vital interests' in the region as Arab authority disintegrates.
As far as Israel is concerned, the Likud and its extreme right-wing coalition
partners now feel free to destroy any chance of a peaceful settlement with the
Palestinians that would ensure the right of self-determination. On another
front, Sunni-Shi'i polarization has now reached the stage of demographic
cleansing and state partitioning as we see is taking place in several parts of
Syria and the Diyala Province in Iraq.
Iran's sectarian discourse translated on the ground by ‘exporting the
revolution' in speech and actions began a process of building extremist, and
later armed, sectarian affinities. The reaction to such a venture was merely a
matter of time. In fact, it came in more than one form, such as the ascendancy
of conservative Sunni parties in several Arab and Muslim countries including
hitherto secular Tunisia and Turkey and the emergence of extremist Sunni
groups claiming to confront Shi'ite political and military hegemony in Iraq,
Syria and Lebanon.
For Iran, the founding of sectarian militias was an important step in
‘exporting the (Iranian brand of the Shi'ite) revolution', more so after its
ambition led to the First Gulf War (The Iraq – Iran War).
Later, Tehran's strategy succeeded thanks to Hezbollah's successes in Lebanon,
Iran's penetration of the Palestinian arena through Hamas and investment in
‘resisting' Israel and even winning over leftist and nationalist sectors
‘orphaned' by the collapse of the USSR and the signing of ‘Camp David'.
In any case what is now taking place in the Middle East at the moment has been
made possible by a very helpful political climate, especially in the USA where
Washington's policies need no clarifications.
Obviously, American as well as Western business and political interests have
strongly contributed to the decision of ‘rehabilitating' Iran. However, this
is happening against a background of human tragedies, demographic changes,
failing states, costly ethnic and sectarian animosities and rancour. Still,
the west would not mind all this as it has decided to treat ISIS as a
phenomenon that sums up all the Sunnis of the region, and bet on Iran as an
ally in its global war against Sunni terrorism exclusively!
This policy may succeed in the short term, but is doomed in the end because it
is the surest way of nurturing extremism and bigotry.
This, exactly, is the Middle East that will throw more of its refugees into
Europe and that Barack Obama will leave behind to his successor come next
November.
Eyad Abu Shakra is the managing editor of Asharq Al-Awsat. He has been with
the newspaper since 1978.
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