Bashar al-Assad's regime rejected U.N. Convoy Stephan de Mistura's proposal to
save Aleppo through granting it self-ruling system. French Foreign Minister
warned that an all-out war in Syria could lead to its division and empowering
ISIS.
So, are we really being faced by dividing Syria or by sharing it?
Since the Russian military intervention in Aleppo in 2015, many have warned
from the dangers of dividing Syria, especially with the mention of ''useful
Syria'' which is the geographical areas useful for Iran, as well as ensuring
the safety of reinforcements for ''Hezbollah'' from Iran through Iraq and
Syria reaching Lebanon.
Yet, after the convergence of the Turkish-Russian ties, we are witnessing
hints of a political power division in Syria rather than a geographical
distribution.
Visitors in Turkey could sense that Ankara is confident that Russian President
Vladimir Putin is the one who ''owns Syria.''
Everybody is talking nowadays about Putin and the role of Russia after the
election of Donald Trump – as well as possible cooperation between the two,
especially in Syria. This was even mentioned in the Israeli media where Syria
is portrayed as a follower of Putin.
So, what about Iran? Definitely, Iranian weapons are flowing into Syrian
territories just as the Iranian Forces and Iran-backed Shiite militias. But it
seems that Russians are the ones talking about the Syrian issues, not the
Iranians. In-fact , anyone seeking an international solution in Syria is
discussing it with Moscow.
It is noticeable that ''Hezbollah'' no longer speaks about Syria, and when
Hasan Nasrallah mentions the Syrian war, it is to mobilize followers of his
party and convince them of the necessity to be involved in the Syrian blood
shedding.
It doesn't end here, surely. Assad didn't ignore the political sharing process
when he commented on Trump's winning of U.S. elections. Assad said: ''If he
fights the terrorists, it is clear that we will be a natural ally, together
with the Russians, Iranians and many other countries who want to defeat the
terrorists.''
This is an evidence that Assad himself is admitting Syria is being divided
between Russia and Iran, add to them Turkey, especially in Aleppo and the
areas on the border. Russia has better chances because its military presence
in Syria is the largest in its intervention history.
The question now is whether the political division of powers in Syria will
divide it geographically, or lead to its disruption, especially that the
anticipated battle whether in Iraq or Syria – after eliminating ISIS – will be
a revolution or – the expected Sunni revolution – where it is difficult for
the Sunni majority to be ruled by minorities supported by the Russian or
Iranian occupation, who support a murderer like Assad?
I think we are closer to a downfall similar to Afghanistan, and I hope I am
just being pessimistic.
Tariq Alhomayed is the former editor-in-chief of Asharq Al-Awsat. Mr.
Alhomyed has been a guest analyst and commentator on numerous news and current
affair programs, and during his distinguished career has held numerous
positions at Asharq Al-Awsat, amongst other newspapers. Notably, he was the
first journalist to interview Osama Bin Ladin's mother. Mr. Alhomayed holds a
bachelor's degree in media studies from King Abdul Aziz University in Jeddah.
He is based in London.
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