Russia the New Regional Policeman?
16 January 2017
By Tariq Alhomayed
Closed negotiations held between Syrian rebels and Russians have recently been
made public, especially concerning discussions on Aleppo's siege.
The Syrian opposition has relentlessly fought to oust regime authoritarian
Bashar Al-Assad, a close ally to Russia.
Not only that, Russian intermediation has been handed over the OPEC production
cut agreement, as U.S. President-elect Donald Trump also publicly reiterated
his great agreement concerning the Syria crisis with Russia's 'strong leader,'
a label Trump often uses to refer to Russia's Vladimir Putin.
Cairo has also been seeking a greater alliance with Russia, seizing a given
opportunity to change around the long-registered disregard for Cairo by the
West.
Iranians, unenthusiastically and cautiously, strike mutual interest alliances
with Russia. A few days ago Libya's military Marshal Khalifa Haftar flew to
Moscow, in hopes of receiving military aid from the federation.
Connecting the dots, a question on Russia's instatement as regional cop
surfaces. Can Moscow truly realize a balance and manage to fill the gaps left
behind by President Barack Obama's policies?
Obama's strategies based, on leading from behind, viewed harmful reluctance
for the region—added to his hasty pullout from Iraq, which left the country in
chaos. More so, Obama's stances, especially his endorsement of the Iran
nuclear deal has unnecessarily added to Iran's arrogant behavior, a country
that until this very day is considered a terror sponsor state.
If the assumption on the United States taking an inactive regional approach
due to the current transition between its presidencies-which believed to
extend into the first few months of a Trump presidency's installation- was
true, then why is the U.S. congress still moving towards escalation with Iran,
with a majority vote at the Senate pushing for the extension of Iran sanctions
for another decade?
The inactiveness during transition shown by the astonishing fact that the U.S.
administration, according to the Financial Times, was not brought in on secret
negotiations held between the Russian administration and Syrian rebels—based
on that many project a U.S. arguable withdrawal from the region, which is then
countered by its will to step up sanctions against Iran.
Congress moving towards escalation with Iran is not a mere backlash to an
Obama presidency, but also a prop up for a Trump leadership. The defiance and
bills brought forward by congress is in preparation for a Trump administration
which campaigned under slogans of amending the terms or even rolling back on
the nuclear deal.
Intensifying events occurring in Washington are a direct strike to the
cleric-led regime in Tehran, a recently acquired ally of Russians. Based on
that logic, how would a Russian super power come to effectively control
regional regulation given the escalating tensions between Tehran and
Washington? A U.S.-Iran breakdown would reshuffle the regional situation.
The current balance shows several support points scattered across the region
for a Russian rise to power, however the same strength points would overturn
breaking the balance should Iran drag Russia to a vicious opposition with the
U.S.
It is not mere wishful thinking, but the deepened reading into facts shows
that Russian exceptionalism shines best at playing on the chords of
disagreement and not stability and resolution.
'Logic' is not a label found in Russian policies in each of Syria, Ukraine,
and even Europe.
What Russians do to the region is simply turning it into a ticking bomb, ready
to detonate at any given moment, as soon as Washington shows again on the
platform, or even reviews the Iran deal.
Tariq Alhomayed is the former editor-in-chief of Asharq Al-Awsat. Mr.
Alhomyed has been a guest analyst and commentator on numerous news and current
affair programs, and during his distinguished career has held numerous
positions at Asharq Al-Awsat, amongst other newspapers. Notably, he was the
first journalist to interview Osama Bin Ladin's mother. Mr. Alhomayed holds a
bachelor's degree in media studies from King Abdul Aziz University in Jeddah.
He is based in London.
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