The Regional Dimensions Of The Syrian Conflict: The Expansion Of The War Threatens The Khamenei Regime
16 February 2018By Abdulrahman Al-Rashed
The Russian-American dispute in Ukraine and other areas of competition can
also be seen in Syria. Iran's project to control the Arab north all the way to
Turkey's border is going as planned, just like it's been warned.
Turkey's worry that the crisis will spill over into its territories led it to
shift its defensive policy to an offensive one by launching an operation in
Syria's Afrin. Israel has also become a major party in the war there.
It is normal for the region to be affected by the quick developments and the
power struggles in Syria. The neighboring countries or Turkey, Iraq, Jordan,
Lebanon and the Palestinian territories, as well as the Arab Gulf and Iran are
likely to suffer the consequences of the conflict.
The Iranians have intentionally opened the Yemeni front against Saudi Arabia
to weaken and get it out of the conflict in Syria so they can easily win
there. We must admit that they succeeded at that.
Yemen's developments are a result of the severe regional conflict and they
show that letting Iran take over Syria, Lebanon and Iraq will not simply end
there. Iran's control over Lebanon enabled it to take over Syria by using
"Hezbollah," which it nurtured to be its regional force. Iran also used some
Lebanese institutions to support its operations in Syria and it used Lebanon
to support its Yemeni proxy, the Houthis.
The conflict in Syria is open to all possibilities as the recent clashes can
either serve as a positive factor that forces all major parties to agree on
solutions that avoid direct wars and minimize losses or they can have negative
results and expand the conflict.
The latter scenario is more likely to happen. Although the US secretary of
defense reiterated that they are militarily present in Syria to confront ISIS,
this does not deny the fact that fighting terrorism calls for confronting
Iranian and Syrian powers that used organizations, like ISIS, to justify their
military activity against civilians. They have even allied themselves with
terror groups against Syrian rebels.
I think when controlling the conflict between Russia, the US, Iran, Turkey and
Israel fails, then Iraq will be the most vulnerable to danger. It is still
recovering from its many battles with ISIS, the Kurdish secession bid and the
increased divisions between sectarian powers, which include Shi'ites, Sunnis
and the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF). These divisions are like a time
bomb that threatens the central authority.
Turkey is also more vulnerable to danger if it engages in battles against the
Syrian regime's allies or if it insists on pursuing Kurds who are allied with
the US. Israel is in the eye of the storm as well, but it has enough power and
alliances that make it less vulnerable to threats despite the blow it was
dealt with the downing of one of its jets and the Iranians' infiltration of
its airspace.
We cannot discuss the repercussions of the conflict in Syria without stating
that Iran itself is vulnerable to danger. Iran resembles a glass house
following the protests, which erupted in dozens of cities and raised slogans
demanding its withdrawal from Syria and suspend financial and military support
to regime allies, the Lebanese "Hezbollah" and the Hamas Movement in Gaza.
The expansion of the war in Syria threatens the Khamenei regime in Tehran
because it will lead to more bloodshed, money and defeats. The Iraqi war in
the last decade proved that the entire region is vulnerable to conflict and
divisions no matter how much it looks like it is controlled by clear rules of
engagement.
Guaranteeing the security and stability of countries that are surrounded with
war lies in believing in collective security and putting an end to greedy and
expansive political projects.
Abdulrahman Al-Rashed is the former general manager of Al-Arabiya
television. He is also the former editor-in-chief of Asharq Al-Awsat, and the
leading Arabic weekly magazine Al-Majalla. He is also a senior columnist in
the daily newspapers Al-Madina and Al-Bilad.
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